Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Furthermore, they have been criticised over their integration or management of
uncertainty, in that approaches aim to disregard underlying uncertainties and shocks
from climatic stimuli, or by viewing uncertainty as a challenge that needs to be
reduced, rather than embracing it and taking it into account as a part of the system
(Isendahl et al. 2009 ). Institutions are an important interface between the social and
ecological system, since they embody and implement the rules of water use, protec-
tion and pollution (Herrfahrdt-Pähle 2010a ; Young 2002 ) . However, speeds and
scales of current and potential change in the bio-physical system must also be
reflected in the social and governance systems that frame their management
(Herrfahrdt-Pähle 2010a ) .
Since the promises of successful water management outcomes through the IWRM
panacea have often not materialised in the reality of highly variable water governance
frameworks and physical settings (Engle et al. 2011 ; Medema et al. 2008 ; Meinzen-
Dick 2007 ), theoretical attention has shifted to the better understanding of adaptive
processes in water governance systems as a means of managing uncertainty and non-
stationarity in future climatic conditions. Interrelated concepts such as vulnerability,
adaptation, adaptive capacity, adaptive governance and management, resilience and
sensitivity have more recently enjoyed broad application in the field of global change
science (Smit and Wandel 2006 ). The following sections will discuss their pertinence
to this study, and some of the issues with their application in reality.
3.2
Adaptation, Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity
It is becoming increasingly clear that failure to mitigate climate change will require
society to learn how best to respond to the challenges of living in a climatically
altered world. Even if the political will is found to adopt the measures requisite to
halt the rise of global emissions tomorrow, the time lag in the climate system is
likely to mean an increase in global temperatures by at least 2°C by end of century
(New et al. 2011 ; Rogelj et al. 2011 ). The associated shifts in climatological pat-
terns will require us all, but water managers in particular, to adapt in a timely and
effective manner, and in a way that is sustainable (i.e. balancing the different com-
peting economic, social and environmental interests) and factors in the underlying
drivers of degradation in the natural system. Climate impacts on hydrology are set
to include alterations in seasonality, a rise in the frequency or intensity of extreme
hydrological events (drought or flood), higher variability of precipitation patterns
and increased glacial melt leading to increased or decreased run off.
The growing awareness and observation of climate change impacts and different
forms of adaptation have led to a recent surge in the amount of research within the
field of 'adaptation' (Adger et al. 2005 ; Dovers and Hezri 2010 ) . Studies on adapta-
tion have increasingly moved beyond a scenario based approach, to those that
include assessments of current and future adaptations to climate, and adaptive
capacity (Carter et al. 2007 ). Increasingly, adaptation in itself has been tackled from
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