Coping with and Communicating Uncertainty - Climate Change and Water Governance: Adaptive Capacity in Chile and Switzerland - page 314

Environmental issues and uncertainty relating to climate change typify the
challenge of resolving complex problems (Balint et al. 2011 ). Not only are there many
divergent opinions in relation to climate change itself, the relationship with anthropo-
genic carbon emissions, but high levels of uncertainty and lengthy time scales encom-
pass the current level of scientifically generated projections for its future development.
Moreover, the complexity and increasingly political contentiousness of the climate
models that define policy communication of climate change impacts further compli-
cate the challenges relating to action on climate change (Akerlof et al. 2012 ) . Therefore,
the plethora of issues concerning the communication of climate related issues is a
direct challenge for the many different facets of water governance research that posit
information, transparency, knowledge and data to be crucial for effective, adaptive and
integrative water resource management (Engle 2010 ; Huntjens et al. 2011 ; Iza and
Stein 2009 ; Ostrom 2007 ; Pahl-Wostl et al. 2007b ; UNECE 2009 ) .

15.2 Finding the Tools

Taking these issues discussed above into account, finding the right tools and devel-
oping a better understanding for how to deal with uncertainty in water relevant deci-
sion making is a key issue for enhancing adaptive capacity. Lessons can be learnt
from studies related to the issues of wicked problems and the challenges of generat-
ing solutions to complex unqualified problems over long time periods. Developing
adaptation options that do not lock in decision makers to a limited set of responses,
despite the lack of information and high uncertainty that surrounds impacts, is vital
to ensure that choices for alternative solutions are maintained as local impacts of
climate change become more apparent (Keeney and McDaniels 2001 ) .
Decision support systems, such as one proposed by Keeney and McDaniels
( 2001 ) employ shorter time frames to evaluate climate change policies in order to
take better account of the 'pervasive and overwhelming uncertainties about climate
change impacts' (p 992). Using timeframes of less than 20 years, they suggest,
would support the selection of policies based more on near term consequences,
making the challenge of addressing climate change seem more manageable, while
also enabling a process of learning to make better decisions for future climate
impacts. The approach also focuses on developing management capacity through
learning supported by adaptive management discourse as well as institutional econ-
omists such as Nordhaus ( 1994 ), where strategies are revised as new information
becomes available. Nordhaus proposes an 'act then learn' process for decision mak-
ing under uncertainty that allows for the incorporation of new information into deci-
sion making, as and when it becomes available.
While these studies have focussed on climate change policy, with a focus on
mitigation (Tompkins and Adger 2005 ), they nevertheless provide expedient insights
for the field of adaptation and the challenge in decision making for enhancing adap-
tive capacity under the uncertainty of climate change impacts (Kane and Yohe 2000 ;
Smit et al. 2000 ). Indeed, the learning based approaches that mitigation focussed