Addressing Water Governance Challenges in the Anthropocene - Climate Change and Water Governance: Adaptive Capacity in Chile and Switzerland - page 6

(Kiang et al. 2011 ; Milly et al. 2008 ) and possible bifurcations (“thresholds”) in the
climate system implies that water governance cannot approach the future based on
the assumption that it will replicate the relatively stable conditions of the past. The
resulting implication is that a shift is required in how we plan and manage water
resources, which respects non stationary conditions and embraces (rather than seeks
to remove) increased levels of uncertainty, transforming how water governance
relates to ecosystems and communities over climate-relevant timescales.
Climate change impacts on hydrological resources and patterns will affect water
governance and management primarily through alterations in the timing of hydro-
logical patterns (seasonality), quantity of water resources (floods and droughts) and
quality (suitability for consumption or use) (Matthews and Le Quesne 2009 ; Cook
et al. 2011 ). Impacts include alterations in seasonality, a rise in the frequency or
intensity of extreme hydrological events (increased drought and flood recurrence
and duration), higher variability of precipitation patterns, increased hurricane intensity,
changing trends in snow pack, and generally accelerating rates of glacier melt lead-
ing to changes in run-off (first increasing then decreasing) (IPCC 2007 ) . These
changes imply both a shift in the alteration (shifts in timing and averages) and
intensification (increasing number and severity of extreme events) of the hydrological
cycle. Changing seasonality, water temperatures and alterations in precipitation
patterns affect water quality, in terms of dissolved oxygen levels, concentration of
pollutants, as well as levels of toxic algae and sedimentation impacting aquatic
species (Matthews and Le Quesne 2009 ) and infrastructure such as dams.
Therefore, governance processes that were designed in a context of 'stationarity'
may not be equipped to address accelerated changes to the hydrological cycle and
more unpredictable uncertainties in relation to future climate. Water rights, regula-
tory and policy contexts that do not take into account the ecological requirements
for maintaining healthy, productive and protective waterways threaten to under-
mine the resilience of the socio-ecological system, at a time when it is needed most
(i.e. as climate impacts mount). Likewise rights, plans, policies and regulation that
do not acknowledge inherent uncertainties by allowing for revision if the bio-physical
parameters, upon which they are based, change, are likely to become increasingly
ineffective in managing the rivalries and negative impacts arising from climate
change. Legislation and rules set now or in the past may impact decisions on invest-
ment and management paths for the next 10, 20 or 30 years, over which time these
impacts will intensify. Simply scaling up past solutions to environmental challenges
to tackle climate related issues may not be adequate to manage future challenges,
because rules may not have taken unpredictable uncertainty into account, or solu-
tions have been focussed primarily on enabling technical 'hard' adaptations that do
not address the social reality in which they must be implemented, or because the
timelines for re-assessment and the integration of new knowledge do not match
increasing speeds of change.
However, water governance, and the institutions it effects, do not just experience
climate change, but play a crucial role in developing an enabling environment for
successful adaptation (Tompkins and Adger 2004 ), to anticipate and respond to a
changing climate. Governance regimes define the context within which adaptation