Economic growth and the environment - Environmental Management - page 373

found that carbon emissions increased monotonically, with a turning point
of $35 428 GDP per capita. They used a panel data of 130 countries for the
years 1951 to 1986. They also used the data to forecast global CO 2 emis-
sions. They obtained the CO 2 emissions data from the Oak Ridge National
Laboratory (ORNL), while the income and population data were gathered
from the Penn Mark V World Tables in Summers and Heston (1991). The
income data were per capita GDP in 1985 nominal US dollars. Using the
results of their study, they arrived at four conclusions. First, the marginal
propensity to emit (MPE) carbon dioxide diminished as GDP per capita
increased. Second, global emissions would continue to increase at 1.8 per
cent per annum. Third, the reason for the continued growth of CO 2 was
the rapid population and economic growth in middle- and lower-income
countries, which had the highest MPE. Fourth, economic development
did not signii cantly alter the future of annual or cumulative l ow of CO 2
emissions.
Also Roberts and Grimes (1997) examined the relationship between
per capita GDP and national CO 2 emissions for the period 1961 to 1991.
They also tracked the changes in the amount of carbon dioxide emitted (in
kilograms) per unit of their GDP, known as the National Carbon Intensity
(NCI), for low-, middle- and high-income countries, using data from
the World Bank and the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
(CDIAC). The GDP i gures were adjusted for inl ation using the World
Bank's GDP del ator and the 1987 exchange rate. They found that CO 2
intensity had steadily worsened for low- and middle-income countries,
but to a lower extent in the latter, however, it improved for high-income
countries. Their results were also statistically signii cant in the early 1970s
and then since 1982. They concluded that the EKC for carbon emissions
was not due to countries passing through stages of development but rather
due to a relatively small number of wealthy countries that became more
ei cient after 1970, while the rest of the world worsened.
Schmalensee et al. (1998) conducted a study to project the emissions
of carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels to 2050. They used
national-level panel data for 47 countries for the period from 1950 to 1990,
which focused on around 80 per cent of CO 2 emissions caused by human
activity. This was considered the most important source of potential future
warming. The GDP data were in purchasing power parity of 1985 US
dollars and were taken from the Penn World Table. They found evidence
of a U-shaped relationship between per capita carbon emissions and per
capita income. Their model also captured two typical patterns. First, for
developing countries, there was continuous, or even accelerating growth
of per capita CO 2 emissions as per capita income increased. Second, for
highly developed countries, the relationship between per capita CO 2