Dynamic Copula-Based GARCH Model Analysis China Outbound Tourism Demand - Innovative Management in Information and Production - page 127

Thailand and Singapore
(DT12)

Thailand and South Korea
(DT13)

.52 .24

.20

.48

.16

.44

.12

.40

.08

.36

.04

.32 .00

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Thailand and Japan
(DT14)

Singapore and South Korea
(DT23)

.12 .4

.10

.3

.08

.2

.06

.1

.04

.02 .0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Singapore and Japan
(DT24)

South Korea and Japan
(DT34)

.8 .5

.4

.6

.3

.4

.2

.2

.1

.0 .0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Fig. 6 Conditional dependence estimates between four destinations based on Clayton copula-
GARCH

and Singapore need to consider forming strategic alliances to develop jointly
products and Thailand and Singapore can complement one another to attract China's
outbound tourists. They can also consider signing an agreement on visas, like the
Schengen visa. It is recommended that they consider signing the Southeast Asian
agreement about visa to improve competitiveness.
The results also found that the summer holiday and the Chinese Spring Festival
turned out to be quite significant and have positive effects on the all destination.
The summer vacation and the spring festival are the Chinese tourism seasons;
the competition is fierce between destinations. Therefore, policy makers and