Civil Engineering Reference
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Growth rate of Thailand
Growth rate of Singapore
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5
-1.5
-2.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Growth rate of South Korea
Growth rate of Japan
.6
.4
.4
.2
.2
.0
.0
-.2
-.2
-.4
-.4
-.6
-.6
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Fig. 2
Log Chinese tourist arrivals rate to four destinations
Tabl e 1
Summary statistics for the incremental rate of Chinese tourist arrival
Thailand
Singapore
South Korea
Japan
.
.
.
.
Mean (%)
0
005006
0
010129
0
014975
0
003711
SD (%)
0
.
335940
0
.
315345
0
.
169541
0
.
119375
−
.
−
.
.
−
.
Skewness
0
708892
0
959877
0
042120
0
231925
Excess kurtosis
4
.
487008
8
.
061693
3
.
007216
5
.
611665
Max (%)
0
.
897066
0
.
923611
0
.
436791
0
.
347800
Min (%)
−
1
.
281747
−
1
.
750788
−
0
.
459033
−
0
.
578180
JB
31
.
13210
216
.
1332
0
.
052720
51
.
89012
tourist arrival return.
1
The descriptive statistics for the incremental rate of Chinese
tourist arrival for each destination are reported in Table
1
, which show that all series
have heavy tail and they do not follow normal distribution. Hence, we introduced
skewed-t distribution to this paper.
The data should be stationary for modeling GARCH model; thus, testing unit-
roots is essential. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF,
Dickey & Fuller 1979
)and
Phillips-Perron (
Phillips & Perron
(
1988
)) can perform the test for unit-root. Table
2
shows the results of unit-root tests. The tests strongly support the null hypothesis of
unit-root for the first difference of log-transformed.
1
The large (small) incremental rate is followed by a large (small) incremental rate. It implies that
there is a conditional variance processes in the data.
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