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Decision Support in Supply Chain Management for
Disaster Relief in Somalia *
E. van Wyk, V.S.S. Yadavalli, and H. Carstens
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering
University of Pretoria
South Africa
{Estelle.vanwyk,Sarma.yadavalli}@up.ac.za,
Hermancarstens@atesouthafrica.com
Abstract. Somalia, a country situated in Eastern Africa has been struggling
between rival warlords and an inability to deal with famine. Diseases have
resulted to the deaths of up to millions of people. According to a New York
Times article on 25 November 2011, Somalia has become a suffering and failed
state. The inadequate infrastructure and poorly planned logistics of Somalia
may lead to the destruction of the country.
To address these concerns, it is necessary that humanitarian aid is pre-
positioned to provide victims with sufficient relief. This chapter addresses some
of the issues in supply chain management with the trade-off between stockpile
cost and shortage cost by using pre-emptive multi-objective programming. The
proposed criteria of the model are described. This is followed by a case study
based on Somalia, illustrating the functionality of the model.
1
Introduction
1.1
The Importance of Disaster Management
The severe effects of natural and man-made disasters are made obvious by observing
any media source. On 13 November 2011, Agence France-Presse (AFP) stated that
United Nations (UN) climate scientists forecast the likelihood of increasing heat
waves in Southern Europe [1]. In addition, North Africa will be more susceptible to
droughts, and rising seas will cause storm surges in small island states. According to
the AFP, peer reviewed scientific journals are claiming that the impact of disasters
have a 90% probability of becoming unbearable over time [1]. A summary for policy
makers drafted by the AFP claims:
“Global warming will create weather on steroids.”
It is feared that in the future, entire communities could be obliterated by a single dis-
aster. The living conditions of communities will degrade as disasters increase in
* A modified version of this paper was presented at ICMIE conference in Singapore,
February 2012
 
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