Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
mimic.the.successes.for.orphan.drugs.and.orphan.crops.for.the.purpose.of.delivering.
valuable.technologies.to.poor.parts.of.the.world.
PREDICTIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Since.1998,.there.has.been.a.downward.trend.in.R&D.intensity.for.crops.with.low.
market.potential..Technology.has.marched.forward,.but.it.seems.to.have.left.horti-
cultural.crops.behind..The.pace.of.innovation.has.been.slowed.by.market.resistance.
and.regulatory.hurdles,.but.it.seems.to.have.slowed.disproportionately.for.specialty.
crops. 2 . Despite. comparable. market.size.and. time. to.market,. pharmaceutical.R&D.
investment.has.far.outpaced.crop.biotechnology.investment. 22
Despite.the.decline.in.R&D.effort,.there.are.reasons.to.be.optimistic.that.rising.
demand.for.horticultural.biotechnology.could.provide.a.jolt.to.lagging.R&D..Though.
no.plant.breeding.technology.had.ever.elicited.consumer.opposition.before.agricul-
tural.biotechnology,.other.revolutionary.technology.in.the.food.industry.has.caused.
concerns.that.were.eventually.diminished..Huffman.and.Rousu.reported.that.it.took.
40.years.for.consumer.opposition.to.pasteurization.of.milk.to.diminish. 24 .At.irst,.the.
opposition.was.widespread,.but.after.considerable.experience.with.pasteurized.milk.
and.long.after.the.emergence.of.a.scientiic.consensus.on.its.beneits,.full.acceptance.
was.attained..The.slow.path.to.acceptance,.however,.was.not.without.costs.as.Pirtle.
estimated.thousands.of.avoidable.deaths.occurred.because.acceptance.of.pasteurized.
milk.was.not.more.immediate. 85
General. acceptance. of. agricultural. and. horticultural. biotechnology. can. be.
expected. to. grow. with. accumulating. experiences.. Regardless,. clear. trends. in. food.
demand. suggest. that. an. increasingly. wealthy,. educated,. and. discriminating. public.
will. demand. more. and. more. differentiated. products. so. that. they. can. accomplish.
heterogeneous. health,. environmental,. and. ethical. objectives.. As. they. learn. to. dis-
tinguish.organic,.low-fat,.low-carbohydrate,.and.farm.fresh.foods,.for.instance,.they.
can.also.be.expected.to.identify.quality-enhancing.GM.traits.and.separate.irratio-
nal.concerns.from.legitimate.risks..In.other.words,.niche.markets.for.GM.products.
should.continue.to.grow..To.the.extent.there.is.a.consensus.view.on.consumer.accep-
tance,.it.holds.that.the.right.quality-enhancing.attributes.will.be.warmly.received..
As.consumers.become.more.accepting.and.demanding.of.GM.foods,.retailers.should.
become.less.averse.to.stocking.them,.sending.appropriate.signals.up.the.supply.chain.
to.seed.companies.
The. regulatory. environment. for. horticultural. biotechnology. is. also. changing.
and. possibly. improving. with. growing. evidence. of. its. deiciencies.. Perhaps,. no.
policy.change.has.broader.implications.than.Europe's.decision.in.2008.to.lift.its.
moratorium.on.GM.foods..Though.the.market.in.Europe.remains.constrained,.the.
liberalizing.of.biotechnology.should.have.implications.for.policymakers.in.politi-
cal.capitals.around.the.world,.especially.in.Africa,.and.should.provide.an.induce-
ment. to. innovating. irms.. Costs. associated. with. regulatory. compliance. should.
decline. as. policymakers. work. to. remove. socially. ineficient. barriers. to. entry..
Governments.have.also.undertaken.to.improve.identity.preservation.infrastructure.
throughout. their. food. systems. in. response. to. lapses. in. food. safety. and. risks. of.
terrorist.attacks.on.the.food.supply..As.this.infrastructure.improves,.it.should.be.
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