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Antananarivo in December 2007. He was made furious by the president's refusal to
allow him to effect change in the city and by the closure of his radio station. He was
quick to use his powerful political and French connections to buy off sections of the
Malagasy army and to pay demonstrators to destabilise the government.
The personal animosity between the two men was rumoured to have deepened be-
cause of a failed love match between the mayor and one of the president's daughters,
thoughthiswasneverpubliclyadmittedbyeitherside.RajoelinawasnicknamedTGV
aftertheFrenchexpresstrainforhisdesiretotakeoverthecountryasspeedilyaspos-
sible, and his organisation Tanora malaGasy Vonona (Determined Malagasy Youth).
In a dramatic series of events in February and March 2009 the presidential palace
wasstormedbyhardenedRajoelinasupporters,theCentralBank'scofferswereraided
by armoured military vehicles and at a crucial moment the French embassy in Tana
gave shelter to Rajoelina when it looked as if he might be arrested for fomenting viol-
ence and riot. Finally on 21 March 2009 in a huge ceremony in the capital Rajoelina
declared himself president.
Many who had been shocked at Ravalomanana's inability to act decisively during
thecrisisbreathedasighofreliefthatthecountrymightnowgetbacktonormal.Butit
was not to be. More than a year after he declared himself president Rajoelina was still
not recognised as the legitimate leader ofMadagascar bymost ofthe world, including
the US and the EU, even though he had been running the country day-to-day as the
head of the so-called High Transitional Authority. His takeover led western countries
tofreeze aid andresulted inMadagascar'ssuspension fromthe African Union andthe
Southern African Development Community.
This lack of legitimacy has helped to make impoverished Malagasy even poorer.
Growth in economic output has declined to less than 1%, new foreign investment has
slowed to a trickle, tourist income has fallen sharply and most non-humanitarian aid
has ground to a halt.
At risk is Madagascar's privileged access to the world's biggest trade bloc under
the Cotonou Agreement, a 2000 deal that provides the framework for European aid
to African, Caribbean and Pacific nations. Under the accord, Madagascar was due to
receive assistance of €600 million between 2008 and 2013.
The decline in aid has serious implications for government spending and develop-
ment. The International Monetary Fund estimates that in 2008 donor assistance ac-
counted for about 50% of Madagascar's budget and 75% of government investment.
During much of 2009 the international community, led by South Africa, attempted
unsuccessfully to broker a deal between the former president and Rajoelina, but
enmity between the two ran too deep. Ravalomanana was a self-made man who had
come to power in controversial circumstances in February 2002 and was re-elected
in 2006 with a 62% majority. He had been determined to move away from old-style
