Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
results were calculated independently for road and rail modes. Therefore, the analy-
sis of results included below was split in the two corresponding subsections.
Stage 4: GHG calculations
The result of the location accessibility indicator, in percentage change reduction,
has been translated into the corresponding increases in travel demand with the use
of a range of commonly used travel time elasticities. These values are summarized
in Table
1
.
These increases in travel demand are included in the TREMOVE model in order
to calculate the corresponding increases in GHG emissions. Results obtained for
the road and rail modes are summarized in Table
2
. The percentage change results
obtained by the road and rail alternatives are obviously not directly comparable, as
these values are heavily influenced by the emission levels of the do-nothing alternative.
A 'global' relative percentage change has therefore been computed, representing
the percentage change compared to the sum of road and rail emissions.
Table 1
Travel time savings and estimated induced trafic
Location indicator (min)
Induced traffic (%)
Transport
mode
Do-nothing
alternative
PEIT
alternative
Reduction
(%)
Minimum
Maximum
Road
156.81
153.18
2.31
1.12
4.62
Rail
325.81
213.86
34.36
58.41
92.72
Table 2
Forecasted induced trafic and corresponding increases in GHG emissions.
Do-nothing vs. PEIT alternative. Road and rail modes
Road
Rail
Traffic (million
vkm)
Do-nothing alternative
332 359.16
275.43
PEIT alternative
Minimum
336 081.58
436.28
Maximum
347 714.15
530.75
Mean
340 036.65
370.17
GHG emissions
(t CO
2
)
Do-nothing alternative
72 513 765.92
234 275.13
PEIT alternative
Minimum
73 279 001.33
365 755.62
Maximum
75 670 365.08
442 987.18
Mean
74 474 683.47
404 371.40
Increase in GHG
emissions
Absolute (t CO
2
)
Minimum
765 235.41
131 480.49
Maximum
3 156 599.16
208 712.05
Mean
1 960 917.55
170 096.27
Relative
a
(%)
Minimum
1.06
56.12
Maximum
4.35
89.09
Mean
2.70
72.61
Global relative
b
(%)
Minimum
1.05
0.18
Maximum
4.34
0.29
Mean
2.70
0.23
a
Percentage change of each mode emissions of the do-nothing alternative.
b
Percentage change of total road and rail emissions of the do-nothing alternative.
