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This description is somewhat simplified, as the delivery of the recommendation
a has already been incorporated into the scaling via the coefficient c(s, a) ; however,
the relationship of the values for the conditional probabilities p ss 0 in respect of s 0 is
determined by each of the unconditional probabilities p ss 0 . We therefore assume that
there are some users who are not influenced by recommendations (because, for
instance, they are working from a shopping list). Although their overall influence is
already limited by the recommendation a (since there is another user group which
is open to the recommendations, hence the scaling factor c ), their specific behavior
in the transition from s to s 0 is unaffected.
It follows that instead of saving all transition probabilities p ss 0 , we only need to
save the conditional probabilities p ss a (i.e., between recommendation and
recommended product) together with the unconditional probabilities p ss 0 . Techni-
cally, this means that for every rule s ! s 0 , both p a s 0
ss 0 (i.e., the probability that the
recommendation of the product s 0 be accepted) and p ss 0 (i.e., the probability that a
user goes from product s to product s 0 without a recommendation s 0 ) are saved.
A similar method was proposed some time ago in [SHB05], but in a more
incomplete form. In particular, the coefficients c(s, a) were merely modeled as
c(s) therein, which prevents adequate handling of down-selling, as we shall
shortly see.
Let us firstly consider again the solution to ( 3.5 ) , in order to determine
the optimal recommendations. So as now to determine the complete transition
probabilities p ss 0 , we use the relationship ( 3.2 ) , and in combination with ( 5.3 ), we
obtain
ð X
s 0 6¼s a
p ss a þ cs
;
p ss 0 ¼ 1 :
ð 5 : 4 Þ
Furthermore, from
X
p ss 0 ¼ 1
s 0
follows the relation
X
p ss 0 ¼ 1 p ss a ,
s 0 6¼s a
which, when used in ( 5.4 ), finally enables the calculation of c(s, a) :
1 p ss a
1 p ss a
cs
ðÞ¼
;
,
ð 5
:
5 Þ
which represents the change of all transition probabilities induced by recommen-
dation a (except for the target state s a ).
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