Travel Reference
In-Depth Information
Some attention has been given to the poten-
tial implications in changes in tourism demand
and corresponding effects at the macroeconomic
and inter-sectoral levels (Blake
et al
., 2003;
Cochard, 2003; Lohmann, 2004). For example,
the Executive Director of the European Tour
Operators Association (ETOA), Tom Jenkins,
warned that EU VAT laws will make accession
countries a more expensive destination and that
it may force tour operators who bring in tourists
from outside the EU offshore as they were
signing up for 'a taxation regime that will make
their destinations less competitive', noting that,
in general, travel to the EU accession countries
will become more expensive to visitors from EU
countries and to visitors from outside the EU
who travel with a tour operator based within
the EU (Enlargement Weekly, 2004). Unfortu-
nately, there has been little such empirical
examination of the implications of these trans-
fers outside of the EU with the exception of
highly tourism-dependent states, such as those
of the Caribbean (Dunlop, 2003; Greenaway
and Milner, 2004).
With respect to the Caribbean (CARICOM)
Greenaway and Milner (2004, p. 75) suggest
that 'The impact of longer term income effects
on export opportunities is likely to be particu-
larly important in the case of services exports.
The relatively high income elasticity of demand
for many services, including tourism, means
that the indirect effects of EU enlargement are
likely to increase tourism demand in the
CARICOM from the new members of the EU.'
However, it should be noted that the validity of
these findings requires recognition of the need
to solve broader trade issues, such as aviation
access between the new EU members and the
Caribbean, as well as substitutability of desti-
nations as a potentially limiting factor in EU
enlargement-induced tourism growth.
With respect to changes in travel flows,
therefore, all one can accurately say is that there
will certainly be changed patterns in travel flows
and investment in tourism, including second
homes, as a result of the EU accession, but that
the extent of such changes is almost impossible
to generalize outside of specific cases (e.g. see
Coles, 2005). Nevertheless, the EU accession
not only opens up potentially new destinations,
but also opportunities for destination substitu-
tion and this, along with other contemporary
factors influencing international tourism flows
such as the price of oil, is likely to lead to sub-
stantial turbulence in intra- and inter-European
travel flows in coming years. However, although
accession will have some direct affects on tour-
ism, there are clearly also potentially significant
indirect implications for international tourism
trade as a result of new pressures being brought
to bear on EU policy-making.
Changes in EU Policy-making
The accession of ten new members to the EU on
1 May 2004 is widely regarded as sealing the
end of the division of the continent in the post-
World War II period. Enlargement has been
part of the EU success and has been a factor in
further integration. However, with the latest
accession the differences in per capita income
between old and new members arguably make
integration more difficult than ever before, not
just in economic terms, but also in the policy
settings that will be required with respect to clos-
ing economic and social divisions (Brimmer and
Fröhlich, 2005). Indeed, difficulties with inte-
gration have already become apparent since
accession, with substantial differences over the
setting of the EU budget and discord over
policy direction especially with respect to the
relative emphasis given to knowledge-based
economic development versus support for the
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) (Sciolino,
2005; The Age, 2005). Although such disputes
have not yet impacted on tourism mobility,
arguably they have had some implications for
labour mobility. The prime ministers of both
Sweden and the United Kingdom have raised
concerns regarding the potential western move-
ment of cheap labour from the accession coun-
tries and it is conceivable that such political
comments may yet have impacts on European
mobility, including tourism.
Although institutional adjustments follow-
ing the progress of the Constitutional Treaty
were still to be determined at the time of writing,
as was the long-term fate of the Treaty (Sciolino,
2005), it was expected that substantial pressures
would be placed upon EU policies by differ-
ences between members (Etzioni, 2005). Such
divergencies cut across a number of policy axes
