Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
to achieve for the problem of forecasting the probability of destruction of
equipment and piping of nuclear power plant.
Chapter 9 discusses an example of application of the Monte Carlo
method to solve a local problem associated with the reliability of heat-
exchange pipes NPP steam generators for the case when there are sufficient
statistical initial data 29 .
2.4 Risk theory
Specialists in various industries in their communications and reports
constantly operate not only the definition of 'danger' but also such terms
as 'risk'.
In the scientific literature there are different interpretations of the term
'risk' and they sometimes contain different contents. Several interpretations
treat the risk as the probability of occurrence of an accident, danger,
malfunction or disaster, under certain conditions (state) of production or
the environment. These definitions emphasise the value of the activity of
the subject and also the objective properties of the environment.
Common to all the above interpretations is that risk involves an
uncertainty whether there will be an undesirable event and whether an
adverse state will form. Note that in accordance with modern views the risk
is usually interpreted as the probability measure of man-made or natural
phenomena accompanied by the emergence, formation and action of the
dangers and the resultant social, economic, ecological and other kinds of
damage and injury.
Risk should be regarded as the expected frequency or probability of
occurrence of hazards of a specific class, or the extent of possible damage
(loss, degradation) caused by an undesirale event, or some combination of
these variables.
Application of the concept of risk enables us to transfer the danger
into the range of the measured categories. Risk, in fact, is a measure
of danger. The term 'the level of risk'is used quite often and is not
fundamentally different from the concept of risk, but only emphasises that
we are talking about the measured quantity.
All these (or similar) interpretations of the term 'risk' are currently used
in the analysis of hazards and safety management (risk) of technological
processes and production in general.
An accurate understanding of using this term will become clear after
further reading the contents of this chapter.
Formation of hazardous and emergency situations is the result of a
specific set of risk factors posed by relevant sources.
Technical risk is a comprehensive reliability index of elements of the
technosphere. It expresses the probability of an accident or disaster in the
operation of machines, technological processes, construction and service
of buildings and structures:
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