Challenges of the 21st Century - Science For Environmental Protection: The Road Ahead - page 17

nutrient-use efficiencies so that soils and nutrients would be held in place. Ulti-
mately, competition between the demand for food and the demand for land
needed for other purposes will limit the amount of biofuels that can be produced.
The extent to which new technology can alleviate those constraints is unclear
because of limitations in photosynthetic efficiency. An improved understanding
at EPA of the potential effects of new energy options and emerging technologies
would help ensure that they are pursued in ways that protect the environment
and human health. Broadly, the domain of energy is a classic example where
systems thinking would be needed, as technologic or regulatory changes influ-
encing one fuel type can have ripple effects across the life cycle of multiple fu-
els. For example, emissions requirements on power plants could reduce air pol-
lutant emissions from coal-fired power plants and decrease impacts related to
coal mining and transport, but could lead to increased use of natural gas and
hydrofracturing as an extraction technology. Systems-level analyses that take
account of these ripple effects and determine the net implications for ecologic
and human populations are crucial.
Technologic Change and Changing Consumption
Technologic innovation creates a large challenge to acquiring the envi-
ronmental data required to inform policy in a timely way. In the last 2 decades, a
revolution in electronics has led to such devices as cellular telephones, iPods,
and tablet computers. In 1980, the computer-chip industry used only 11 ele-
ments from the rare earth and platinum series metals; today it requires 60 ele-
ments, or almost two-thirds of the natural periodic table (Schmitz and Graedel
2010; Erdmann and Graedel 2011). Such technologic change not only requires
increasing production but challenges the ability of industry to recycle and re-
cover the (sometimes toxic) materials used in electronic devices. EPA is chal-
lenged to assimilate or perform research fast enough to understand the health
and environmental risks associated with the production and disposal of those
devices, let alone how to mitigate any risks. A legacy of contaminated soils in
both terrestrial and aquatic environments is a reminder that managing these
technologic challenges is not new. Increased vigilance is necessary to ensure
that future generations are not left with a legacy of contamination as has hap-
pened in the past.
Other innovative technologies—such as new chemicals, nanomaterials,
and synthetic biology—are important for economic growth. However, they also
require focused research to understand adverse human health and environmental
effects and to understand how to avoid harmful effects through safe product
design and to ensure that wastes are reused or recycled. In the face of rapid
technologic innovation, a key challenge for EPA is acquiring the scientific data
required to fulfill its mission of protecting human health and the environment
without imposing a drag on economic development (see Chapter 4). Understand-
ing how new technologies will influence the application and use of existing