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utility can be evaluated retrospectively would add value in constructing long-
term datasets, but EPA should not restrict development of indicators to those
with historical data. Many agencies will probably be able to use indicator data,
so collaboration among federal agencies, including EPA, would support the col-
lection of data and operationalization of the system of indicators in a more cost-
effective manner.
The committee endorses the principles in Box 4-1 to guide the develop-
ment and use of indicators by EPA and other government agencies that can in-
form long-term trends. Some of these principles are already used by EPA.
BOX 4-1 Principles to Guide the Development of Indicators
Do not ask an indicator to do too much. Indicators inform us of trends
in some entity of interest, but they should not be designed to diagnose the
processes that underlie trends.
Do not design indicators to give grades. Indicators should report objec-
tive, scientific information, describe trends, and provide the scientific rationale
for interpreting them; value judgments should be kept separate from the sci-
entific and objective aspects of indicators.
Do not let indicator development be driven by availability of data.
Aware of this trap, the Heinz Center (2002) focused on identifying the envi-
ronmental processes and products that society most needed to know about
by including many empty graphs and explanatory text that directed attention
to the processes where ignorance most mattered and where increased re-
search and funding would yield social benefits.
Propose and use only a few indicators. Thousands of environmental
indicators have been proposed or are in use. However, an indicator is likely to
have the influence it deserves only if it competes for attention with a small
number of others.
Embed indicators in a rigorous archival system. Any dataset will be of
little value in the absence of a well-crafted system that monitors data quality,
document sampling, and analytic methods; archives data in a secure and
recoverable form; and analyzes and reports data in formats that are useful to
decision-makers and managers.
Try to avoid shifting baselines. Because many ecosystems and habi-
tats are poorly understood, and because large fluctuations characterize most
natural environments, choosing appropriate baselines is challenging. For
some purposes, a shifting baseline is appropriate, but gradual environmental
deterioration is likely to be undetected if a shifting baseline is used, because
the altered, often degraded, condition becomes accepted as “normal” (Pauly
1995).
Base indicators on well-established scientific principles and concepts.
It is difficult or impossible to interpret the indicator data in the absence of a
sound conceptual model of the system to which it is applied.
(Continued)
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