Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
6.5 Modelling the Impact of Climate Changes on PM
Levels in Poland
Katarzyna Juda-Rezler
1
, Wojciech Trapp
2
, and Magdalena Reizer
1
1
Faculty of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland
2
Air Protection Unit of Ekometria, Gdańsk, Poland
Abstract
For assessing the impacts of climate changes on PM levels we adopted,
for the first time in Poland, the modelling system built with the CAMx model
coupled with the RegCM3 regional climate model. The simulations were performed
with very high resolution of 10 km for the modelling area of Central-Eastern
Europe, centered over Poland. The modelling system was evaluated for the entire
2000 year of reference for which detailed emissions database was created. The
predictions of PM
10
concentrations by the RegCM3/CAMx driven by the ECHAM5
global circulation model were of similar quality to those of the RegCM3/CAMx
driven with the ERA40 global atmospheric reanalysis dataset. We obtained the
NMSE in the predictions of annual PM
10
≤ 0.35 and the IA > 0.5. Next the system
was forced by the output of the ECHAM5 for the simulations covering present day
and near future decadal time-slices. The anthropogenic emissions were kept
unchanged. The results obtained suggest that the changes in PM
10
concentrations
induced by climate changes in near future will be small to moderate and will not
exceed −4.5 to 1.5 µg/m
3
for the Central-Eastern Europe.
Keywords
Air quality modelling, Climate change, Particulate matter, Model
evaluation,
Poland
1. Introduction
Particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O
3
) have currently become critical pollutants
worldwide, with respect to human health and environment. Increased levels of O
3
and fine particulates (PM
2.5
) can cause severe respiratory and cardiovascular
diseases and increase the risk of death. Understanding the possible impacts of
climate changes on future air quality is of key importance. Changes in climate and
anthropogenic emissions of primary PM and its precursors are expected in the 21st
century (IPCC, 2007).
In Poland particulate pollution is presently posing the most serious air pollution
problem. The wintertime air pollution episodes due to PM occur in many urban
