Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
4.8 Tropospheric Ozone in Regional Climate-Air
Quality Simulations over Europe: Future Climate
and Sensitivity Analysis
E. Katragkou
1
, P. Zanis
2
, I. Tegoulias
2
, and D. Melas
1
1
Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, School of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki,
Greece
2
Department of Meteorology-Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of
Thessaloniki, Greece
Abstract
In this work we present results of regional climate-air quality simulations
over Europe performed for the future decade 2041-2050 (2040s) and the control
decade 1991-2000 representative of the present climate. Summer ozone mostly
decreases in the mid-century decade by about 0.8-1.2 ppb over continental Europe
and the Mediterranean Basin, with the exception of the Balkan Peninsula, Adriatic
and Black Sea and southern Iberian Peninsula in the area around Gibraltar, where
average surface ozone increases by about 0.5-0.8 ppb. Ozone decrease can be
mainly attributed to decreasing incoming solar radiation, which is mostly seen
over France, England and northern continental Europe. Average temperature increases
in the southern and northern parts of Europe, but not more than 1 K, and remains
unchanged or even slightly decreases over France and England. Temperature change
spatial patterns follow closely the changes in atmospheric circulation as indicated
by 500 hPa geopotential high differences. Biogenic emissions follow temperature
and radiation changes, thus increasing in Mediterranean countries and decreasing
over northern Europe. However, sensitivity studies in our simulations suggest that
ozone formation is not sensitive to organic compounds of biogenic origin, therefore,
changes in biogenic emissions due to climate change do not impact on surface ozone.
Keywords
Climate change, regional climate models, air quality
1. Introduction
Tropospheric ozone (O
3
) is an important trace gas with well documented adverse
effects on human health, agriculture and natural ecosystems. Global change,
including change in climate and anthropogenic emissions, is expected to impact on
many key atmospheric species and tropospheric ozone is certainly one of them
(IPCC, 2007). Most modeling studies agree that the 21st century climate change
will increase regional ozone pollution. The basic reasons were reported to be the
