Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
by ArborGen. Thus, all regulatory stage activities to date involve private sector
organizations.
4 Conclusion
The success of development and commercialization of drought- and stress-tolerant
varieties will depend on developing the right genetics for the right crops, and releas-
ing them in the right markets at the right time. The historical lessons of irrigation
technologies should be a warning, for the adoption of higher efficiency sprinkler
and drip systems was delayed by attempts to commercialize them in the wrong crop
and at the wrong locations.
Understandably, the desire is to introduce drought-tolerant varieties to help the
poor. But technology diffusion tends to trickle down from commercially high-value
uses to lower-value uses. This is consistent with the threshold model of adoption,
and it is consistent with experience: Golf courses were the first to use and refine
modern irrigation technologies. So, while drought-tolerant varieties are being tar-
geted at crops typically grown by poor farmers, the successes may end up to be that
ones that start with high value crops. Therefore, because the costs of crop losses are
greater, the incentive for adopting stress- and drought-tolerant varieties is greater.
Again, looking at the precedents set by irrigation technology, drip irrigation system
was first designed for cotton, but the technology was actually first adopted on a
widescale in farming tomatoes and avocados, which have much higher values on a
per area basis than does cotton.
The ability to survive dry periods suggests a heightened demand for drought-tol-
erant crops in more extreme environments, effectively expanding the climatic range
of crops. Again, incentives will be higher for doing so with higher value crops. Drip
enabled expansion into marginal semi-arid lands in California, cotton was not the
crop that was chosen for this resulting area expansion, instead tree nuts and grape
vines, again, both higher value on a per area basis. An expansion of range would
be desirable in many parts of the world, even without the impending challenges of
climate change, because it can open up more opportunities for lowincome farmers.
Importantly, because they will assure a higher frequency of realized benefits, the
likelihood of adoption in more extreme locations is more assured.
Drought-tolerant varieties present challenges. Not only are they difficult to de-
velop technically, but they will vary in importance across seasons and years and
across regions once implemented. This variability in benefit may require tailor-
made strategies for introduction region by region. The drought-tolerance trait may
in the end be most useful as a mechanism to introduce other complementary traits
or technologies. The greatest value to be realized from drought-tolerant varieties
is likely to be found among high-value crops and in regions with more extreme
conditions.
As we have seen, incentives for the development of stress- and drought-tolerant
varieties vary significantly, depending upon the appropriability conditions shaped
