Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
capricious and not in accordance with the law ([147], pp. 502
-
503). The risk and
harm that might accrue (fromnonregulation) might include costly storms and loss of
shoreline, risks that were both actual and imminent.
The cautionary point is that Gates identi
es the desired technology as a miracle.
In this topic, we have examined quite closely many of the leading possible sources of
energy to replace the burning of coal, gas, and oil. Can we see among these any
technology that will provide energy at half the cost with no carbon dioxide emissions?
The answer is, probably not.
But the good news is that any or all of the renewable technologies that we have
discussed that can approach $1/Win capacity cost will be in increasing demand as the
costs of fossil fuels go up and the damage that they do to society at large becomes
more widely recognized and compensated. Perhaps, it will be the good fortune of a
new Steve Jobs to identify and manufacture a winning combination of these
renewable technologies.
This topic contains a lot of material on the sun, how it generates energy, and on
attempts to make the same nuclear fusion process work on earth. Unfortunately,
these technologies do not at present seem to be leading prospects for the energy
shortfall that is foreseen. There is some chance that innovation in the Tokamak-type
fusion reactor may occur, and the time available is 20
30 years. There is also some
chance that nuclear fusion reactors based on thorium, rather than uranium, may
advance. The advantages of energy based on nuclear reactions are their high energy
density and the continuous supply of power that is available.
Energy security was famously described by Winston Churchill as arising from
variety, and variety alone referring to sources of oil as he planned to shift the British
fleet fromcoal to oil power. The same dictummay apply to the diffuse sources of solar
and renewable energy that will become more important after the oil bubble has
passed, approximately 2046. Solar thermal, solar photovoltaic, solar water heating,
wind, hydroelectric, and wave energies will all be available, and all may be needed to
fill the shortfall that will appear, accompanied by rising demand from developing
nations. As the price of oil rises approaching 2030, a wider variety of cars will likely
appear, evolving from todays mix of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and full electrics.
Whether the long-range nonpetrol auto of the future mass market will run on better
batteries or on a tank of a fuel such as hydrogen via fuel-cell electric propulsion seems
to be an open question. In any case, it seems the renewable energy business will be
booming.
-