Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
farms. We saw in Chapter 10 that China has taken 65% of the solar panel market and
has driven the solar panel price down to $1.20/Wp. It appears that wind turbine
manufacture is likely to remain in the United States and Europe. China will be a
strong force in adapting to the new energy world for its own citizens and also as a
business opportunity for export.
In the legacy world, planning and execution of needed changes may increasingly
originate in large cities that are economically viable and not controlled to such a large
extent by vested interests opposed to change. The European Union has taken strong
steps toward integrating solar andwind power into its electric grid. It seems likely that
bottom-up efforts like rooftop solar cells and the arti
cial leaf technology may
become important, especially in the third world of several billions. While the legacy
energy industries, especially involving the electricity grid, are slow to change, a
bottom-up technology that does not need government approval, can appear almost
overnight, as happened with cellular telephones. It is hard to predict what may
happen. Perhaps, a Steve Jobs counterpart will arise in the energy area. The late Steve
Jobs, CEO of Apple, was a genius in identifying new combinations of existing
technology to meet needs and indeed to create new markets. As we have noted, the
energy market is the largest of all possible markets.
Following recent data and predictions [152], we have rationally predicted that the
oil bubble for conventional accessible oil will extend to about 2046. There will still
be oil for those who can pay for it, but themassmarket will no longer be dominated by
oil. The world will not be without energy, because there is enough coal to last for a
longer time, perhaps until 2080 [154]. Still, there is a high level of concern on the
adequacy of energy supplies, especially in the face of growth in the developing world,
and in view of the climate changing aspects of fossil fuel use.
11.4.2
The
Energy Miracle
Bill Gates, the former CEO of Microsoft, is now a well-informed practicing global
philanthropist. In an important address, he explained why, if he could have one wish
to improve the lot of humanity over the next 50 years, he would choose an energy
miracle [157].
The energy miracle would be a new technology that would produce energy at half
the price and with no carbon dioxide emissions. The reasoning is that a low price for the
new technology is the only way that developing countries, notably China and India,
can avoid greatly increasing the use of coal tomeet their energy needs, with increased
carbon dioxide emissions. Thus, carbon dioxide emissions, leading to climate
change, are clearly identi
ed by Mr. Gates as one of the greatest dangers to humanity
on a 50 year timescale.
The science of climate change is beyond the scope of this topic. The danger of
greenhouse gas accumulation, leading to climate warming, is scienti
cally accepted.
The U.S. Supreme Court in April 2007 ruled that CO
2
was a pollutant that may be
reasonably anticipated to endanger public health and welfare and that the Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency, if it failed to regulate CO
2
emissions, would be
