Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Figure 10.1 Photovoltaic module manufacturing learning curve [123]. Cost per watt plotted versus
cumulative volume ormanufactured volume of device capacity installed, inmegawatts. The limit of $1/
Wp corresponds approximately to 6 c/kWh electricity cost.
Solyndras cost per panel of $3.94 versus the market selling price of $3.24. So it
appears that todays price per panel is de
nitely below $4.00.
In a recent speech, StevenChu, U.S. Secretary of Energy, spoke of reducing the cost
of photovoltaic energy by 75%, to reach $1/Wp, which is regarded as competitive with
other energy sources, and which in his speech was identi
ed with electricity cost of
6 c/kWh [125]. (See Figure 5.6 for cost of various cell types. The cell types have been
described in Chapter 6.)
On the other hand, the implied $4/Wp at present is higher than prices quoted on
the Internet. $4/Wp in particular ismuch higher than $0.76/Wp, recently reported as
the manufacturing cost for CdTe modules in large volumes [126]. The
firm, First
Solar, has stated their module ef
ciency as 11.2%, with reported production capacity
of 59MWper line. First Solar total production capacity is predicted to reach 2.2GWin
2012, suggesting about 37 production lines. It was earlier reported that First Solar has
an original line in the United States, 1 in Germany, and 16 in Malaysia.
A detailed history of the CdTe solar cell is available (http://en.wikipedia.org/
Wpiki/Cadmium_telluride_photovoltaics). One of the advantages is the relatively
simple
closed space sublimation
process for depositing CdTe, which requires relatively
low temperature and provides rapid deposition. Sublimation allows removal of
molecules from a solid, without having to form a liquid. It appears that halogen
lamps are sufficient to heat the bulk CdTe source, while it is mentioned that 500
Cis
needed to process CIGS solar cells. So this makes clear that there are different
learning curves for different technologies, and at present the CdTe technology is
lower in cost than the predominant solar cell production, in silicon cells of several
sorts.
See also The Quest by Daniel Yergin (Penguin, NewYork, 2011) for an anecdotal,
business-oriented history of solar cells, Chapter 29, pp. 563
587, titled Alchemy of
Shining Light. Yergin is known as an explicator and apologist for the oil industry, see,
for example, Daniel Yergin, There will be oil,
Wall Street Journal
, Sept. 17, 2011.
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