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cracy is often seen as the politics of the West, synonymous with liberal standards and mor-
al permissiveness. Some younger Arabs see democracy as the pathway to free speech but,
as the Arab Spring in Oman demonstrated, there is limited understanding about the attend-
ant responsibilities that temper democratic freedom. But time will tell. Now that a flavour
of democracy is enjoyed in greater representation on national assemblies, for example,
perhaps the old social contract built on traditional authority rather than on public opinion
will, as Kaplan predicts, simply 'peter out as...society advances'.
Current Challenges
In foreign politics, the insurgency in Yemen, an Al-Qaeda stronghold, threatens to pro-
voke Saudi into conflict, as competing ideologies battle for a foothold in the only impov-
erished corner of the Peninsula. In domestic politics, the Arab Spring uprisings still
grumble on in Bahrain and Kuwait and people have become less tolerant if change does
not favour their vision of the future.
In the economy, all countries across the region are scared, not so much that oil reserves
have reached their peak, but that new methods of extraction are reconfiguring the market.
This has placed a much greater emphasis on diversification, building up industries such as
trade and commerce, benefited by the Peninsula's location as a hub between East and
West. Tourism is another area of prime emphasis, albeit hampered by security concerns in
neighbouring countries such as Egypt, Iraq and Syria.
One of the biggest challenges is the process of swapping to an indigenous workforce. It
takes time for the benefits of a modernised education system to produce home-grown ex-
pertise and there is resistance from some immigrant communities to train their local re-
placements. Without progress in the human resource development of the region, however,
there is concern that a two-tier society will inevitably lead to further resentment and in-
stability.
Balancing the Future
Peninsula Arabs have encountered the shock of the new, anger at the passing of valued
traditions, and the rejection of external pressures, and the familiar cycle has concluded
with a general acceptance of modernisation. The process will only be complete, however,
when each country finds a way in which to honour its heritage and give a greater sense of
inclusion to its citizens. The establishment of majlis ashura (public representation) in pub-
lic policy is a good start and the inclusion of women as they join the ranks of government
ministers (except in Saudi) is also viewed favourably. Propelled ahead of male colleagues
by a proven propensity for education and with less commitment to wusta (nepotism), Ara-
bia's women are seen as the change agents of the future.
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