Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
The growing population in the global market
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations defi nes food security
as the state of affairs where all people at all times have access to safe and nutritious food to
maintain a healthy and active life. World population in 2010 was roughly 6.7 billion people.
While population is growing more slowly than forecast a few years ago, it is still predicted
that it will be a number of years before population growth stabilizes. Predictions of future
populations put the global population between 8 and 12 billion by 2050 with nearly all the
growth expected in the developing world (
Figures 5.1
and
5.2
)
.
Given these population growth estimates, there is little doubt that food demand
will increase signifi cantly in the years ahead. Many experts estimate the growing population
will mean that a doubling of food production will be necessary during the next 30 years.
Of course, food demand is more than just population—income to buy food is also important.
So, the realized increase in demand for food will depend on both population growth
and income growth. With respect to income, the world continues to grow more polarized.
There is a greater disparity among the “haves” and the “have-nots.” While the number
of people in the low-income bracket grows faster than the total world population, the share
of income controlled by the upper-income bracket of the population has also been
rising signifi cantly. This phenomenon is measured by the “Gini coeffi cient.” This metric is
a number between 0 and 1, where 0 corresponds with perfect equality (where everyone
has the same income) and 1 corresponds with perfect inequality (where one person has
all the income and everyone else has zero income).
Figure 5.3
s
hows countries scored by
Gini coeffi cient.
Figure 5.1
World population distribution by region, 1800-2050
Source: United Nations Population Division,
Briefi ng Packet, 1998 Revision of World
Population Prospects
.
