Information Technology Reference
In-Depth Information
information technology - computers, communications, the Internet - our knowledge of bio-
logy is already, and then multiply that by a billion in 25 years, and the factor in the fact that
it's also miniaturizing at a rate of five per linear dimension per decade, so these technolo-
gies in 3-D volume will be thousands of times smaller and a billion times more powerful,
and you come up with some pretty remarkable capabilities."
Controversially and radically, Kurzweil looks forward to an eventual "singularity"
between human and machine intelligence which will in effect lead to a sort of immortality.
"We'll be able to capture human intelligence in a non-biological system - a machine, if you
will - but these machines won't be like machines that we're used to. If you look at - and
the hardware side of this equation is not even controversial; just look at Intel's Roadmap or
the so-called ITRS Roadmap from the semiconductor industry, and you'll see that a chip in
2020 will have 5 nanometer features and will be as powerful as the human brain, a thou-
sand times more powerful than the human brain by 2030. And the more important issues,
the software, the methods of human intelligence, are being sort of unraveled through this
grand project to reverse-engineer the human brain to understand its principles of operation.
And there, again, we're making exponential gains in our understanding. We already have
models, detailed mathematical models and simulations of a couple dozen regions out of the
few hundred that exist in the human brain, and we can apply, for example, advanced psy-
choacoustic tests of this model of the auditory cortex and get similar results as applying
these tests to human auditory perceptions. There's actually a simulation of the cerebellum
where we do a skill formation, which comprises more than half the neurons in the brain."
The market ramifications of Kurzweil's theories remain to be seen.
On the more strictly and obviously commercial front, Apple has launched its revolu-
tionary iCloud service for information consumers, directly competing with Google and
Amazon for the sale and storage of music, film and other data in the cloud. Apple's iPad,
meanwhile, leads the pack in the growing market for tablet computers, just as its iPhone
reigns as the tech and market leader among smartphones. Innovation thrives at Cupertino
under the close direction of the inimitable Jobs. At the same time, analysts and investors
ponder what the firm will be like - and in what manner its innovation shall proceed - in an
eventual post-Jobs world. Now shift focus over to Microsoft: an organization that seems
mired in the past, focused on Windows and, after a host of failed product launches, stum-
bling in its attempts to innovate.
Elsewhere, everything that's old is new again. 2011 marks the 100th anniversary of
IBM, and also the firm's first $100 billion year.
In the realm of books and newspapers, eReaders such as Amazon's Kindle and other di-
gital publishing initiatives are actively redefining the nature and economics of publication
- a revolution that has barely just begun.
Bottom line: Genius and invention flourishes on a range of fronts and in a multitude of
ambitious tech companies. Start-ups still start. Brilliant young men and women - impatient
