Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
understory fuel continuity and thus alter fire regimes (Hurteau
et al.
2009
). Fuel
continuity may also change with socio-economic changes (Pausas
2004
) and with
changes in the agricultural policy (e.g. subsidies). In some fire-prone ecosystems
the future response to altering fire regimes is not likely to be a monotonic function
of increasing temperature, rather
tipping point
thresholds are to be expected
(Lenton
et al.
2008
). For example, the potential exists for temperature increases
to produce fire regime changes that lead to vegetation shifts, which in turn lead to
further fire regime shifts that are not directly predicted by temperature. This line of
reasoning leads to the conclusion that better analytical models of future tempera-
ture change will not necessarily improve predictive power for fire regime changes
and that we should proceed cautiously with the expectation of major and inevitable
surprises (Doak
et al.
2008
).
Fire management focus in the future is likely to make the most progress by
thinking strategically about locating fuel treatments in ways that can be used to
provide direct protection of urban and suburban environments. Much of the
future focus must be on preventing ignitions during extreme fire weather and
managing home construction and urban fuels to make homes less vulnerable.
Perhaps most importantly we need to focus on land planning decisions that put
fewer people at risk by following smarter patterns of growth. Increasing our
predictive ability through fire hazard indices that capture parameters such as
drought-induced dieback may provide some added benefit.
Conclusions
Early European influence in all MTC regions outside the Mediterranean Basin has
led to marked similarities in approaches to dealing with wildfires. The combin-
ation of annual fire risk and high-intensity crown fires in shrublands and wood-
lands binds all of the MTC regions. Although all five regions have had very
different human histories, there is a convergence in contemporary fire problems.
Fire management agencies have benefited from the experiences in other regions
and this has often resulted in exchange of ideas and personnel. This exchange of
information goes far beyond the MTC regions since many fire-prone landscapes in
other climatic regions such as southeastern Australia and western USA have
similar fire problems. Two important differences between regions have contrib-
uted to different levels of fire danger for human populations. One is the inherent
difference in fuel loads between MTC regions that generate very different fire
hazards, for example between California chaparral and Western Australian heath-
land. Another is tied to differences in population density that may vary by more
than an order of magnitude between MTC regions. These differences have pro-
found implications for patterns of community vulnerability and fire management
options.
Although preventing fires from reaching urban and peri-urban environments is
an important goal for fire management agencies, it needs to be recognized that not
