Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
1.0
observed
model simulation
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1850
1900
1950
2000
Figure 1.4
Climate warming can be simulated when man-made factors are included. (© Crown
copyright 2007, the Met Offi ce)
Table 1.1
Energy related CO
2
emissions. (Reproduced with permis-
sion from Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) version 4.0 (or
5.0). World Resources Institute, 2007, available at http://cait.wri.org )
Country/grouping
CO
2
per head (tCO
2
)
GDP per head ( $ )
USA
20.4
34 430
EU
9.4
23 577
UK
9.6
27 276
Japan
9.8
26 021
China
3.0
4 379
India
1.1
2 555
World
4.0
7 649
1.2.4 The Stern Report
The economics of climate change mitigation are crucial in steering an optimal policy towards
a given agreed goal. These issues were addressed in the Stern Report [6].
Although the experts are almost universally convinced that climate change is taking place
they are uncertain as to what exactly will be its effects. The Stern Report is unique in the
sense that it examines the probabilities of reaching certain temperature thresholds at different
stabilization levels. These probabilities have only been established recently and provide the
basis for the economics of the analysis of the risks and costs involved in taking a range of
actions towards reducing the greenhouse emissions.
The key message of the Stern Report is summarized below:
•
The lags in the climate change process must be recognized. What is going to happen to
the climate over the next 20-30 years is already determined and irreversible. Actions over
the next 20-30 years will affect what happens in the decades to come.
