Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
AbstRAct
Increasing food production and declining prices are a necessary, but not a sufficient
condition to ensure food availability and affordability for all. The primary reason is
that complex interactions between farmers, food distribution systems, and consum-
ers influence availability and affordability of food. A systems perspective is useful to
understand and address factors affecting global food supply and demand. Using this
perspective, we examine the main trends and issues in food production, distribution,
and consumption. Although food production has increased faster than population in
the past, there is no consensus among researchers regarding future trends. Recent
developments such as global warming, HIV/AIDS, wars, and biofuels may have sub-
stantial impacts on food availability and affordability in the future. The ability of
the food-marketing system to make food available and affordable depends on the
level of value added desired by consumers and by the costs of carrying out multiple
marketing activities. Recent food marketing trends that are contributing to better
performance of the food-marketing system include specialization in marketing activ-
ities, adoption of information technologies, economies of scale in food distribution,
improved infrastructure, and better segmentation of the end consumer. In addition,
factors shaping food demand that will influence food adequacy in the future include
the pace of population growth, the distribution of the population across age groups,
income level, income distribution, and geographic location (e.g., urban, rural). Three
cases illustrate the complexity of relationships involved in the global food supply
chain. The first case discusses the demand-driven livestock revolution and its links
to changing diets, the second case explores critical links between the rising biofuels
sector and food prices, and the third case describes the impact of modern food retail-
ers on trade local supply chains in developing countries. We conclude with a discus-
sion of policy alternatives to ensure adequate food for all.
IntRoductIon
The last 30 years have seen both increased production of calories per capita for the
world as a whole (Gilland, 2002) and declining real prices (that is, adjusted for infla-
tion) for grains such as rice, wheat, and corn (Pinstrup-Andersen et al., 1999). These
observations have been taken as an indicator that food production at a global level
is adequate for human needs. Despite these positive trends, many millions of people
continue to suffer from undernourishment of “macronutrients” such as energy or
protein or micronutrients like iron, vitamin A, or iodine. This suggests that neither
total production of calories nor declining prices are sufficient to eliminate under-
nutrition. In essence, it is both the
availability
of food and its
affordability
by all
households that are required to achieve adequate food for all. Moreover, past trends
may not accurately indicate our planet's future food production. Concerns about the
limits to food production and predictions of widespread nutritional crises have been
expressed at least since the time of Thomas Malthus two centuries ago and continue
to be commonly heard in the early twenty-first century. New challenges continue
to emerge with the potential to influence the availability and affordability of food,
making the future of global food supplies and their prices uncertain.
