Agriculture Reference
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population growth rates also have chronic food insecurity issues and are among the
LDCs in terms of income. In sum, during the next century, global population growth
will persist in countries with limited resources to accommodate the growth, thereby
possibly leading to an increase in food-insecure people. Historically, high population
growth was closely associated with higher demand for food.
n u t r i t i o n o u t L o o k
According to most studies (Rosegrant et al. 2001, FAO 2006a,b; USDA 2007),
improvements in global per capita food availability are expected to continue, but
gains will be slower than historical rates. According to FAO, per capita food avail-
ability at the global level is projected to average 3130 calories per person per day by
2050. Intake in developed countries is projected to increase only slightly, while in
developing countries availability is projected to increase from 2700 calories per per-
son per day in 2005 to more than 3000 calories by 2050 (Table 22.1). However, there
is considerable variation among regions. In Latin America, the Caribbean, and East
Asia, calorie consumption is projected at around 3200 calories in 2050. The percent-
age of population that is undernourished in those regions is projected to fall under
3%. In contrast, calorie consumption in SSA is projected to remain the lowest in the
world at 2830 calories despite rising at the fastest rate—17% between 2015 and 2050.
As a result, nearly 6% of the region's population will remain undernourished.
Although there will be adequate food to keep up with demand at the global level,
millions will continue to go hungry because of national unequal distribution of
income that limits food purchasing power. According to World Bank projections,
with the exception of East Asia, per capita income growth in all regions will be much
higher during 2005 to 2015 than during the 1990s. East Asia, despite projections of
slower income growth, will have the highest annual per capita income growth of all
regions, 5.2% per year (World Bank, 2000). South Asia, with deep poverty levels, is
expected to make a major leap and is projected to have the second-highest annual per
capita income growth in the upcoming decade, 4.7% per year. Growth in SSA, while
expected to improve from its historical declining trend, is projected to be the lowest
tAble 22.1
developing countries: Projections of Per capita food consumption and
undernourished Population, 2050
Population undernourished
(%)
Developing countries 3070 3.9
Sub-Saharan Africa 2830 5.8
Latin America and Caribbean 3200 2.6
South Asia 2980 4.1
East Asia 3230 2.9
Source: United Nations FAO World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050 (Interim Report, June 2006).
Region
Per capita consumption
(kcal/person/day)
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