Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
the 1950s when the United States came under pressure to dispose of grain surpluses.
For producers and exporters, food aid became a desirable policy choice when stock-
piled commodities lost most of their market value. Compared to the decades of the
1960s and 1970s, however, world food supplies have recently tightened, and there-
fore most commodities are no longer treated as if they are free goods.
The global quantity of food aid has fluctuated during the last two decades, and its
share has declined relative to both total exports of the food aid suppliers and total
food imports of low-income countries. Despite this trend, it has been a common
practice for the world's major producers to supply food aid. All donors cite humani-
tarian relief as their basic food aid distribution criterion, but economic and political
considerations have also played an important role in allocation decisions. The com-
modity mix of food aid usually reflects the export profile of the donor country and
tends to vary with yearly fluctuations in availability. The United States, the European
Union, Canada, Japan, and Australia are the major food aid donors. The United
States is the principal contributor, providing more than half of global food aid. The
notable success of food aid has been in dealing with food emergencies. For example,
during the first stages of Somalia's civil strife in the early 1990s, food aid contributed
to about 70% of their consumption. During Rwanda's civil strife of the mid-1990s,
food aid contributed to roughly a third of food consumption.
food AvAIlAbIlIty oulook In the
context of emeRgIng Issues
One of the key variables determining the outlook for food availability, the growth
rate of world population, is on a slowing growth path. The U.N. population assess-
ment report projects a slowdown in population growth, from 1.7% per year during
1970-2000 to about 1% through 2030 and to 0.5% per year by the middle of the cen-
tury (UNFPA, 2007). Despite these changes, the absolute increase in world popula-
tion is not small as it is projected to rise about 50 million people per year during the
next three decades, followed by a 30- to 40-million increase by 2050. The concern
lies in the fact that more than 90% of the population growth will be in developing
countries. Among regions, population growth in SSA is expected to be the high-
est, accounting for about half of the world population growth by 2050. Conversely,
population in East Asia is projected to stagnate and then decline about 0.2% per year
during 2045 to 2050. During the same period, SSA will account for 18 million of the
26 million people added annually to global population.
By 2050, population in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to increase
fivefold and exceed 200 million. Population growth could nearly match that in Niger,
which may increase its population fourfold to more than 50 million. In countries
such as Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad, Malawi, Somalia, and Zambia, populations are
projected to double by 2050. In 1950, populations in these countries were in the
range of 2 to 5 million compared to 2050 projections that are in the range of 30 to
100 million people. Ethiopia, one the most vulnerable countries to food insecurity,
had a population of 18 million in 1950, but it is projected to swell to 186 million by
2050, a near tenfold increase. The concern is that most of the countries with high
