Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
at three times the rate of developed countries. However, the available food has not
been distributed evenly. At one extreme, there is the United States, where per capita
food availability exceeded 3500 calories per day in 2005. At the other extreme is
sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where per capita food availability averaged only 2300
calories. The paradox of the increase in global food availability and persistent hun-
ger stems from income inequality both among and within countries. One of the key
variables determining the outlook for food availability, the growth rate of world
population, is on a slowing growth path. More than 90% of the population growth
will be in developing countries. Improvements in global per capita food availability
are expected to continue, but gains will be slower than historical rates. While there
will be adequate food to keep up with demand at the global level, millions will con-
tinue to go hungry because of national unequal distribution of income that limits
food purchasing power.
tRend In PoPulAtIon gRowth
Through the twentieth century, population grew at an unprecedented rate. Between
1800 and 1900, population increased from 600 million to 1.6 billion. However, in
the following century, the pace of growth accelerated dramatically such that by the
year 2000, global population increased more than 3.5 times, reaching the 6 billion
mark. In fact, it took only 12 years for the population to increase from 5 to 6 billion
(United Nations, 2007). This jump took place despite several important develop-
ments: there was a decline in the global rate of population growth; fertility rates in
88 countries fell below the level required for long-term replacement of their popula-
tions; the AIDS disease that spread across East and Southern Africa resulted in a
significant cut in population growth rates in several countries in these regions. The
global population growth rate has averaged about 1% per year since 1990, about half
the rate experienced during the 1950s and 1960s. Despite this slowdown, the annual
net addition to global population is about 57 million. In other words, in a period of
6 years roughly 340 million people—larger than the population of the United States
in 2007—are added to the total.
During the twentieth century, population growth in developed and developing coun-
tries followed a distinct path. Developing countries, which had been characterized by
high birth and death rates, transitioned to low death rates, thereby fueling global popu-
lation growth. In developed countries, birth rates and death rates generally declined
at the same rate; in some countries, mainly in Europe and Japan, however, birth rates
declined even faster than death rates, leading to nearly stagnating population growth
rates. This difference in growth paths led to a lasting change in the dynamic of popula-
tions during the last century; 80% of the population growth since 1900
has taken place
in developing countries, particularly in the world's poorer countries.
In addition to differences in population growth paths by income class, there have
been variations in population growth among regions, particularly in the develop-
ing countries. According to the United Nations' population statistics, the population
growth rate has declined since the early 1960s, but not at the same rate in all regions.
This decline was much faster in Asia, followed by Latin America, and then Africa. At
the subregion level, the slowdown in population growth in North Africa was similar
