Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
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Whether it would be possible to apply current and future technologies to mitigate cli-
mate change or stop the emissions of greenhouse gases altogether, there is agreement
that the world has already committed to a certain degree of global warming given the
magnitude of historical emissions already added to the atmosphere. This means that
the agricultural industry must be ready to adapt crops and practices for the environ-
mental conditions anticipated to prevail during this century. Agriculture is an activ-
ity with a high capacity for adaptation, something that is easily demonstrated when
we consider the geographic distribution of crops such as wheat, maize, and soybean.
Advances in biotechnology, such as cultivars with pest resistance or herbicide tol-
erance, are examples of optimization and efficiency of the agricultural enterprise.
However, it is not known how vulnerable the main agricultural systems are to the
extreme changes in climate, such as prolonged droughts, floods, or heat waves.
From a historical point of view, one of the first regional studies that considered
adaptation to climate change was that of Easterling et al. (1992a, 1992b). The simula-
tion study known as MINK (Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas) used meteorological
data of the 1930s (known as the Dust Bowl era for the persistent drought and erosion
of that period) as analogue climate to evaluate the impacts of these climatic condi-
tions on agricultural production as well as possible adaptations to these change. Both
known adaptations (e.g., early planting, long-season cultivars, and planting density)
and advanced adaptations (cultivars with improved radiation use efficiency or stress
tolerance) were able to partly alleviate yield losses induced by climate change.
For an adaptation technology to be effective, it is important to know the patterns
of adoption or patterns of substitution at the regional scale. Easterling et al. (2003)
suggested that, facing climate change, not all farmers would adopt changes in their
practices in response to climate change at the same time. In many adaptation studies,
the convention is to simulate perfect adoption or perfect ignorance of the adapta-
tion practice. Easterling et al. (2003) simulated the adoption of adaptive technolo-
gies by farmers as a logistic (S-shaped) diffusion process and recommended this
approach as a sound method to test adaptations that rely on technological innovation
and substitution.
In general, the agricultural sector has exhibited good adaptive capacity to envi-
ronmental and economic conditions. However, there are significant differences in
adaptive capacity throughout the world. Because of this and the anticipated nature
of future climate change, there is a need intensify adaptation studies to guide the
development of adaptation practices.
towARd AgRIcultuRAl sustAInAbIlIty
In the twenty-fIRst centuRy
Climate change will not occur in isolation during this century. Instead, it will occur
amid many other concurrent socioecological events and trends, many of them hard
to predict. In this context, land use and land use competition will play fundamental
roles in the design and implementation of mitigation and adaptation practices. One of
the topics related to agriculture and climate change is the production of biofuels (see
