Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
15
Challenge and
Threats to Sustainable
Food Production
Larry W. Harrington and Peter R. Hobbs
contents
Abstract .................................................................................................................. 235
Introduction............................................................................................................ 236
Demographic Change............................................................................................. 236
Water Scarcity ........................................................................................................ 237
Land Degradation................................................................................................... 239
Climate Change......................................................................................................240
Energy Insecurity ................................................................................................... 241
Loss of Ecosystem Services................................................................................... 243
Interrelationships....................................................................................................244
Moving Forward .................................................................................................... 245
Conclusions and Study Topics ............................................................................... 245
References..............................................................................................................246
AbstRAct
Previous chapters have focused on food needs. This chapter introduces the chal-
lenges and threats that must be addressed if food needs are to be met in a sustain-
able and equitable way. Challenges and threats introduced here include demographic
change, water scarcity, land degradation, climate change, energy insecurity, and loss
of ecosystem services. Demographic change, along with income growth and urban-
ization, determines the shape of future food needs. Food insecurity will increas-
ingly be concentrated in low-income and food-insecure countries where population
growth remains relatively high. Water scarcity is becoming a major threat to sustain-
able production where food demand is rising (especially for “water-intensive” prod-
ucts such as fresh fruits and vegetables); where competition is increasing between
agricultural and nonagricultural uses of water; and where river basins are “closing,”
meaning that the demand for water has come to exceed its supply and rivers no
longer reach the sea. Climate change has also come to be recognized as a threat to
sustainable food production. Analysis of multiple scenarios suggests that climate
change will have serious distributional impacts across countries, with poor countries
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