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Waterhouse et al. (1996) Function and Available Data
f(x) mean
data
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Input x
Fig. 8.7. Plot showing the test function used in [227], and the 200 available observations
Mixed Prediction and Prediction of Classifiers
Fitness and Average Number of Classifiers
-150
5
data
pred +/- 1sd
f(x)
cl. 1
cl. 2
max. fitness
avg. fitness
min. fitness
avg. K
1.5
-160
4
1
0.5
-170
3
0
-180
2
-0.5
-1
-190
1
-1.5
-2
-200
0
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0
50
100
150
200
250
Input x
GA iteration
(a)
(b)
Fig. 8.8. Plots similar to the ones in Fig. 8.5, when using a GA for model structure
search applied to the function as used by Waterhouse et al. [227]. The best discovered
model structure is given by μ 1 =0 . 52 1 =0 . 016 and μ 2 =3 . 32 2 =1 . 000.
classifiers, which is in both cases sampled from
(4 , 0 . 5). As before, the result
is insensitive to this number. The best discovered model structures are shown
in Fig. 8.8 for the GA, with
B
L
( q )
ln K !
≈−
159 . 07, and in Fig. 8.9 for the
MCMC, with
158 . 55. The MCMC search had a reject rate of
about 97 . 0% over its 5000 steps.
Both the GA and the MCMC search resulted in about the same model struc-
ture which at the first sight seems slightly surprising: looking at Fig. 8.7, one
would initially expect the function to be modelled by a flat line over 1 . 5 <x< 4,
and 2 straight lines for the bump at around x =0 . 4, requiring altogether 3
L
( q )
ln K !
≈−
 
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