Database Reference
In-Depth Information
Figure 14-13: Results of the What-If Scenario tool.
As you can see, two new columns are added to the input spreadsheet: New (plus the adjustable
column name) and Confidence. The New column shows the value that would be needed in order to
fulfill the AverageTime goal of 70.
If you look at row 7, you'll see that the actual LevelTwoOperators was 4 and the actual AverageTime
was 73, which is 3 seconds above the target AverageTime of 70. In this case, the What-If Scenario tool
suggests that removing one LevelTwoOperator (Net = -1) would still allow you to hit the goal of
AverageTime of 70.
Another way to work with the What-If Scenario tool is to run it for individual rows. Select
the row that you want to analyze, then select the On This Row option instead of the
Entire Table option in the wizard. When running the tool in this fashion, results display in
the message box along with a confidence rating (poor, fair, very good, and so on). You
can also select a different row while keeping the wizard open and run the analysis again.
Note
Prediction Calculator
We've all heard the quote “You miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take.” It's easy to understand
that this quote refers to the need to take risks in order to realize gains, but in realistic situations this is
an oversimplification because generally speaking, the goal is to take those shots that you predict will
lead to a profitable outcome while avoiding those shots that may lead to a loss. But what about the
shots that you “should have” taken because they “would have” resulted in a gain? These missed
opportunities, called false negatives in the Prediction Calculator, can be thought of as conditional or
alternative outcomes and represent one of the four possible gain and loss categories to be consid-
ered when calculating the profitability of predicted scenarios. The other three — true positives, true
negatives, and false positives — are discussed in this section. Using the Prediction Calculator Data
Mining Add-In tool, this section discusses an approach for calculating prediction outcomes in the
context of these four possible outcomes.
 
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