Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Externality System (APES, see Chapter 4), a Farm System SIMulator (FSSIM, see
Chapter 5) and the extrapolation tool EXPAMOD (Pérez Domínguez et al.
2009)
.
And thirdly, some model components of CAPRI are not taken up by SEAMCAP,
like the farm type layer or the spatial disaggregation module. Therefore, this chapter
compares the full stand-alone CAPRI modelling system with SEAMLESS-IF,
which includes the SEAMCAP model component.
In the following section we start with a short description of CAPRI and its
relationship to SEAMLESS-IF. The subsequent three sections compare objectives
and structure, concepts for database and coverage as well as types of model links
used in the two modelling systems. The succeeding four sections deal with different
aspects of modelling agricultural production and agri-environmental interaction at
farm and regional level looking into model calibration, technologies, policies and
environmental indicators. This is followed by a description of the baseline generation
for forward looking impact assessment and a comparison of the software platforms
of both systems. Finally, the chapter ends with a brief look into challenges for the
future and conclusions.
Short Description of the CAPRI Modelling System
and Its Integration in SEAMLESS-IF
The core of the CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact; Britz et al.
2007)
model is an economic agricultural sector model aiming to analyse impacts of
changes in the European Union (EU) (or international) agricultural policies on
European agriculture and global agricultural commodity markets, typically in a
forward looking analysis (8-10 years ahead). Technically, the economic core is
a static, partial equilibrium model consisting of four interconnected modules:
•
Regional non-linear programming models of agricultural supply for EU-27,
Norway and Western Balkans;
An international multi-commodity model for major primary and secondary
•
agricultural products including bi-lateral trade flows;
An EU market model for young animals and, finally; and
•
•
A module generating premium schemes and other policy instruments of the
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) (see also Fig.
11.1
).
The supply module consists of non-linear programming (NLP) models comprising
about 50 crop and animal activities for each of about 250 level-two-regions of the
Nomenclature des Unités Territoriales Statistiques (the so-called NUTS 2 level).
Each regional model maximises agricultural income at given prices and subsidies
subject to resource constraints on land, feed and nutrient requirements as well as
policy restrictions. Regional agricultural income is defined as the gross value added
(GVA) at producer prices plus direct subsidies (premiums). Costs neither included
in the GVA nor covered by the restrictions are captured by a quadratic cost function,
whose parameters are either estimated from time series analysis (Jansson
2007)
