Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Exogenous Assumptions for a Baseline Scenario
The baseline scenario should capture the complex interrelations between techno-
logical, structural, policy, population and market changes related to agricultural
production and commodities world-wide. A number of exogenous assumptions are
adopted in FSSIM-MP while building the baseline scenario. Some of these are
characteristic for all farm models; others are specific to our system, because there
is a need of consistency with the other models in the model chain of SEAMLESS,
especially with the regional market model.
The key underlying assumptions considered in FSSIM-MP are the following:
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Inflation: an assumed inflation rate of 1.9% per year was adopted.
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Prices: the FSSIM baseline prices are obtained indirectly from the market model
CAPRI. It consists to multiply the FSSIM base year prices (coming from the
survey or Eurostat) by the relative change of SEAMCAP prices between the
base year and baseline scenarios.
Technical progress: the technical innovation is captured through the set of
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alternative activities generated and assessed by other components of FSSIM
(see next section). This means that in the base year analysis only current activities
are considered and in the baseline scenario both current and alternative activities can
be included without any trend on yield.
FSSIM-MP Structure: Modular Setup
FSSIM-MP has a modular set-up which includes crops, livestock, perennials,
premium, Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), risk, trend and policy
modules. These modules are linked indirectly by an integrative module involving
the objective function and the common constraints (Fig. 5.
2
). Each module includes
two GAMS files. The first one links the data definition and the module's equations
and the second file contains the module's equations. Each module generates at least
one variable which is used to define the common module's equations, thus providing
a link between the different modules.
Thanks to this modularity, FSSIM-MP provides the capabilities to add and
delete modules (and their corresponding constraints) following the needs of the
simulation, to select one or several calibration approaches (risk, standard PMP,
Rhöm and Dabbert PMP approach) and to control the flow of data between database
and software tools. FSSIM-MP also has the advantage that it can be run with simple
or detailed survey data (i.e. according to the level of detail of the available data).
Additionally, it can read input data stored in any relational database, in Excel or in
GAMS-include files provided that they are structured in the required format.
FSSIM-MP can be applied to individual (i.e. real) or representative farms
(i.e. typical or average farms) as well as to natural (territorial) or administrative
regions by considering the selected region as a large farm (i.e. if the heterogeneity
