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48 . Kevin McCracken and Peter Curson, “Flu Downunder,” in Phillips and Killingray, Spanish Influenza, pp.
130-31.
49 . Memo, 15 March 1976, quoted in Richard Neustadt and Harvey Fineberg, The EpidemicThat NeverWas (New
York: Vintage Books, 1982), p. 207.
50 . John Barry, The Great Influenza (New York: Viking, 2004), p. 5.
51 . J. Oxford et al., “World War I May Have Allowed the Emergence of 'Spanish' Influenza,” Lancet Infectious
Diseases 2, no. 2 (February 2002): pp. 11-14.
52 . William Henry Welch, quoted in Alfred Crosby, America's Forgotten Pandemic: The Influenza of 1918, new
ed. (Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press, 2003), p. 11.
53 . Jeffrey Taubenberger et al., “Integrating Historical, Clinical and Molecular Genetic Data in Order to Explain
the Origin and Virulence of the 1918 Spanish Influenza Virus,” Phil. Trans. R. Soc. London B 356 (2001): p. 1831.
54 . National Academy of Sciences, “Thomas Francis Jr.,” Biographical Memoirs 44 (Washington, DC: 1974),
pp. 71-73.
55 . Edwin Kilbourne et al., “The Total Influenza Vaccine Failure of 1947 Revisited,” PNAS 99, no. 16 (6 August
2002): pp. 10748-52.
56 . Gerald Pyle, The Diffusion of Influenza: Patterns and Paradigms (Totowa, NJ: Rowman & Littlefield, 1986),
p. 141.
57 . J. Donald Millar and June Osborne, “Precursors of the Scientific Decision-Making Process Leading to the
1976 National Immunization Campaign,” in Influenza in America, 1918-1976, edited by Osborne (New York: Prod-
ist, 1977), pp. 22-23.
58 . Global mortality for 1957 pandemic from testimony of Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Diseases, to the House Committee on Government Reform, 12 February 2004.
59 . Miller and Osborne, “Precursors,” pp. 21-23.
60 . Ibid.; and 1968 global estimate from Fauci testimony.
61 . Pyle, Diffusion, p. 141.
62 . M. Kitler, P. Gavinio, and D. Lavanchy, “Influenza and the Work of the World Health Organization,” Vaccine
20, Suppl. 2 (15 May 2002): p. 9, www.sciencedirect.com .
63 . Miller and Osborne, “Precursors,” pp. 19-22.
64 . See the recollections by famed Australian influenza researcher Graeme Laver, “Influenza Virus Surface Gly-
coproteins, Haemagglutinin and Neuraminidase: Personal Account,” in Potter, Influenza, pp. 31-47.
65 . Neustadt and Fineberg, Never Was, pp. 17-22.
66 . Ibid., p. 35.
67 . Ibid., pp. 64 and 81.
68 . Ibid., pp. 67 and 95.
69 . Kilbourne, Influenza, p. 331.
70 . Ibid., p. xx.
71 . Ibid., pp. 225-26.
72 . Jaap Goudsmit, Viral Fitness: The Next SARS and West Nile in the Making (Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press), p.
23.
73 . Edward Stokes, Hong Kong's Wild Places (Hong Kong: Oxford Univ. Press, 1995), pp. 175-76.
74 . Davies, Devil's Flu , p. 2.
75 . D. Alexander, “A Review of Avian Influenza in Different Bird Species,” Veterinary Microbiology 74 (2000):
pp. 3-13.
76 . K. Shortridge, J. Peiris, and Y. Guan, “The Next Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from Hong Kong,” Journal of
Applied Microbiology 94, Symposium Supplement (2003): p. 71S.
77 . Rene Sancken et al., “The Next Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from Hong Kong, 1997,” Emerging Infectious
Diseases 5, no. 2 (March-April 1999): p. 198.
78 . Davies, Devil's Flu, pp. 8-12. Davies's vivid account, based on wide-ranging interviews and travel to Hong
Kong, is preferred to Gina Kolata's error-ridden narrative, Flu (New York: Farrar, Straus, Ginoax 1999). Kolata, a
New York Times science reporter who relies unduly on the CDC version of events, gets the date of the little boy's
death wrong and, more significantly, fails to acknowledge that the Dutch were first to make the type identification.
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