TRENDS IN NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY AND THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE - Food Security, Food Prices and Climate Variability - page 83

have significantly lower purchasing power than others, and are likely to continue to have low
purchasing power in the decades to come, households in these regions will purchase food
grown locally to maintain consumption levels because of the more affordable price of these
grains. Although there are significant differences between urban and rural areas in a develop-
ing country, in this section we will work with country-level data because that is what is avail-
able for sufficient time to calculate trends. The analysis would be stronger if sub-national
production information was available for all countries.
To better understand the differential impact of rainfall, population expansion and agricul-
tural capacity in developing countries, a coarse food balance indicator was developed. Pre-
sented in Funk et al . (2008), the indicator model provides a coarse representation of the
impact of trends in these three parameters through time. Agricultural capacity can be described
as the amount of cropped area used in agriculture per person, the amount of seeds purchased
by the country and the amount of fertilizer applied to the crop. These three parameters can
capture most of a country's investment in agriculture and productive capacity. When modi-
fied with the amount of rainfall in the main growing season, the indicator model captures
national per capita production (Funk et al ., 2008).

Food Balance Indicator =

1 Population

__________________ ___________________________________

Main Season Rainfall × bl*Cropped Area + b2*Seeds + b3*Fertilizer

The food balance indicator relationship can capture structural food security problems, such as
those seen in regions with high levels of population growth, such as is seen in East and South-
ern Africa. Approximately 65 percent of Africans rely on agriculture as their primary source
of livelihood. Small-scale farmers are responsible for more than 90 percent of Africa's agricul-
tural production (IFPRI, 2008).
Figure 4.6 shows the growing gap between population growth and agricultural capacity.
Declining rainfall due to climate variability and change will only compound these problems,
as it may further reduce agricultural production. Today, one in three children in Eastern and
Southern Africa is underweight. The region has a very low national per capita cropped area,
leading to very low production even in good years (FAO, 2013). Poor farmers in these coun-
tries have become trapped in cycles of displacement, division and degradation (Kates, 2000),
and depend on rain fed agriculture to feed their families (Rockstrom and Falkenmark, 2000).
Thus in this region, per capita crop production is an important metric of food availability and
food security (Funk et al ., 2008).
In East and Southern Africa, agriculture capacity trends are dominated by cropped area and
population growth increases. Food production has increased by 50 percent over the past 25
years while population has nearly doubled. Extensification into new lands and increased labor
inputs have been used to increase production, with investment in improved varieties and
fertilizer use lagging (Funk et al ., 2008). Since 1990, foreign investment in agriculture has
declined from 12 to 4 percent of total aid, and only 4 percent of African public spending goes
to agriculture (Lowder and Carisma, 2011). This lack of investment has translated into a
reduced per capita agricultural capacity over this time period. Recent increases in commodity
prices have once again put pressure on both government and business institutions to increase
investment to reverse this trend (Lowder and Carisma, 2011).