TRENDS IN NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY AND THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE - Food Security, Food Prices and Climate Variability - page 81

Ethiopia • Spring and summer rains in parts of Ethiopia have declined by 15-20 percent since the mid-1970s.

• Substantial warming across the entire country has exacerbated the dryness.
• An important pattern of observed existing rainfall declines coincides with heavily populated areas of the Rift Valley in southcentral
Ethiopia, and is likely already adversely affecting crop yields and pasture conditions.
• Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier, warmer climate regime could dramatically increase
the number of at-risk people in Ethiopia during the next 20 years.
• Many areas of Ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall
declines and reduced production in other areas.

Sudan • Summer rains in western and southern Sudan have declined by 10-20 percent since the mid-1970s.

• Observed warming of more than 1° Celsius is equivalent to another 10-20 percent reduction in rainfall for crops.
• The warming and drying have impacted southern Darfur and areas around Juba.
• Rainfall declines west of Juba threaten southern Sudan's future food production prospects.
• In many cases, areas with changing climate are coincident with zones of substantial conlict, suggesting some degree of association;
however, the contribution of climate change to these conlicts is not currently understood.
• Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a more variable climate regime could dramatically increase
the number of at-risk people in Sudan over the next 20 years.

Notes
Using quality-controlled meteorological station data from each country, FEWS NET, the USGS and collaborators at the Climate Hazard Group at the University of California have
developed climate fact sheets summarizing rainfall and temperature changes over the past three decades and the impact these changes have had on food security. The main conclusions
of these publications are summarized here. Copies of each fact sheet can be found at http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/ .