TRENDS IN NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY AND THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE - Food Security, Food Prices and Climate Variability - page 80

TABLE 4.2 Rainfall and temperature changes over the past three decades and their impact on food security

Nation Summary

Chad • Summer rains have decreased in eastern Chad during the past 25 years.

• Temperatures have increased by 0.8° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts.
• Crop yields are very low and stagnant.
• The amount of farmland per person is low, and declining rapidly.
• Population growth combined with stagnating yields could lead to a 30 percent reduction in per capita cereal production by 2025.
• In many cases, areas with changing climate are coincident with zones of substantial conlict, indicating some degree of association;
however, the contribution of climate change to these conlicts is not currently understood.

Niger • Summer rains have increased during the past 20 years and have almost returned to 1960-89 levels.
• Temperatures have increased by 0.6° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts
• Crop yields are very low and stagnant, and the population is growing very rapidly.
• Niger has offset very rapid population growth with a large expansion of cultivated land.
• If the expansion of farmland slows down, stagnant yields and population growth could lead to increased food insecurity.
Burkina Faso • Summer rains have remained steady over the past 20 years, but remain 15 percent below the 1920-69 average.
• Temperatures have increased by 0.6° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts.
• The amount of farmland per person is low, and declining.
• Burkina Faso has offset rapid population growth with improved yields.
• Continued yield growth would maintain current levels of per capita food production.

Uganda • Both spring and summer rains have decreased in Uganda during the past 25 years.

• The magnitude of observed warming, especially since the early 1980s, is large and unprecedented within the past 110 years, representing a
large (2+ standard deviations) change from the climatic norm.
• Cropping regions in the west and northwest appear most affected by the observed changes in climate.
• Rainfall declines in the west and northwest threaten Uganda's future food production prospects.
• Warming temperatures may be adversely affecting coffee production.
• Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier and warmer climate regime could dramatically
increase the number of at-risk people in Uganda during the next 20 years.
• In many cases, areas with changing climate are coincident with zones of substantial conlict, indicating some degree of association;
however, the contribution of climate change to these conlicts is not currently understood.