FOOD SECURITY AND MONITORING SYSTEMS - Food Security, Food Prices and Climate Variability - page 35

recognizethemultiplecausesoffoodinsecurityandreductionsinentitlements.Thusunder-
standing livelihoods is central to ability to know where to look for signs of crisis to avert a
disaster.
Although much early warning is integrated into risk reduction assessments, the human-
itarian community needs very specific information about risk to nutrition outcomes before
responding to an emergency, thus the two communities remain rather separate. In the context
of this topic, risk reduction methods and analysis are a potential area that can enable planning
for the potential impact of increases in global food prices on local access. By developing
approaches to reduce risk through mechanisms such as grain storage and country-level insur-
ance programs and rainy-day funds, countries can reduce the risk to food security posed by
potentially large increases in the cost of food imported from the international market.
Livelihood example: Niger
To show the practical uses of the livelihood approach, and how food prices and climate
variability would fit into an understanding of food security outcomes using livelihoods, we
need to look at a specific country. The following example from Niger shows the high level
of complexity and large number of factors that go into an assessment of the impact of a
weatheroreconomicshockonlivelihoodsinaparticularregionorzone(Brown et al .,
2012). The framework used by FEWS NET is essentially rural, where farmers are reliant on
natural resources to make their living and are highly affected by variations in moisture
availability. The price of food affects farmers both in the value of the goods they produce
as well as the expense of purchasing food on the market when their own stocks are depleted.
Integrating non-farming sources of income and environmental shocks in nearby regions
into these assessments is difficult due to the ever-widening array of income opportunities
and linkages to other regional, national and international economies that even rural eco-
nomies have. Information on food prices is thus critical for these assessments as African
economies work to cope with increasing climate variability and population growth (Funk
and Brown, 2009).
As of this writing, Niger has a population of approximately 16 million people, with
approximately 14 million in rural areas (CIA, 2012). The rural population includes crop
farmers and herders, and the degree to which they rely on the one or the other activity is
highly determined by the amount of annual rainfall received in the region, and the interan-
nual rainfall variability, which increases the farther north one goes. This vulnerability to
weather fluctuations fundamentally shapes the understanding of local livelihoods that FEWS
NET uses to monitor food security in the area, although other considerations also affect that
understanding, including soil conditions, proximity to main market centers, cross-border
trade and special local resources such as salt deposits that can bring market income.
Rainfall varies from north to south of the country, ranging from 50 mm or less in northern
desert areas to around 800 mm at the southern-most tip of the country. Rainfall dictates the
limitsofpasturesbeforetruedeserttakesover(thezoneofpastoralism),aswellasthelimits
ofcropcultivationbeforepasturestakeover(theagropastoralzone).Italsodeterminesthe
mainrainfedcultivationzoneandtherelativeemphasisondifferenttypesofcrops(notably
thebalancebetweenmilletandsorghum)( Plate 4 ).Accesstogroundwaterisalsoacritical
factorineightofthe13livelihoodzones,asitpermitsirrigationforeithercropdevelopment
or for insuring farmers against in-season rainfall irregularities (FEWS NET, 2011c).