Agriculture Reference
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Figure 8.5
summarizes the results of the analysis. A consistently important variable in these
models is mother's education, which reduces the odds of stunting in most countries. Child's
age is also important in the regression, as the youngest children are protected to some degree
fromundernutritionthroughbreastfeeding;aschildrengetolderandneedtorelyonother
food sources for the majority of their calories, the effects of food scarcity and insecurity, poor
nutritional quality of available foods, as well as increased risk of infections, become
apparent.
The analysis shows that NDVI is significantly associated with an increased risk of mortality
in the two driest countries: Burkina Faso and Mali. Every unit increase in NDVI was associ-
ated with a 13 percent reduction in the odds of mortality in Burkina Faso, and a 7 percent
reduction in Mali 2001. However, the NDVI variable is only significant in the 2001 Mali
survey, and not in 2006. Across these countries, the variable that is most frequently signifi-
cantly associated with mortality is birth interval: compared to first births, children who are
born after longer birth intervals are significantly less likely to experience mortality. Thus, the
association between NDVI as a proxy for crop yield and young child mortality is inconsistent
across countries and over time.
NDVI does not have a consistent association with stunting. This varying relationship has
been observed in other studies as well (Curtis and Hossain, 1998). In Benin, for every unit
increase in NDVI, there is a 40 percent increase in stunting. In Mali 2006 (but not 2001), for
every unit increase in NDVI, there is a 12 percent decrease in stunting. NDVI does not have
a significant association with stunting in any other country. The reasons for the positive asso-
ciation between NDVI anomaly and stunting in Benin could be many. It could be that the
NDVI values are higher because of fewer clouds (and thus less rainfall) and not because of
increased productivity. This change may reduce production in some crops such as vegetables
that are important for child feeding. Alternatively, there could be an association with disease
vectors or increased fungal contamination of the food supply that our analysis cannot
uncover.
Stunting
Wasting
Mortality
-12.8
Mali 2006
-7.7
0
0
Mali 2001
-10.7
-6.7
0
Guinea 2005
0
0
0
Burkina Faso 2003
0
-12.8
39
Benin 2001
0
0
FIGURE 8.5
Summary logistic regression results: percent change in stunting, wasting and mortality
of children under the age of five associated with each unit increase in NDVI (only
associations significant at p < 0.05 are reported).
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