Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
TABLE 7.1
Results from the price-NDVI model for maize. Highlighted RMSPE indicates the lowest error and best it model.
Price series
Markov
forecast
Markov + Seasonal
Markov + Seasons + NDVI
Markov
+
Seasons
+
World price
+
NDVI
6
Country
Location
Commodity
RMSPE
1
RMSPE
RMSPE
ndvi_p
2
ndvi
3
RMSPE
ndvi _p
ndvi
wprice_p
4
Worldprice
5
Benin
Cotonou
Maize
18.2
18.4
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Senegal
Ziguichor
Maize
14.9
13.4
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Ghana
Tamale
Maize
20.4
14.9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Niger
Diffa
Maize
11.1
10.0
9.4
0.00
-0.88
9.1
0.00
-0.97
0.27
0.22
Niger
Gaya
Maize
20.4
15.0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Niger
Maradi
Maize
11.4
8.2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Niger
Niamey
Maize
8.0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Niger
Tounfai
Maize
12.2
8.6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Niger
Agadez
Millet
9.7
8.7
7.7
0.01
-0.68
7.7
0.01
-0.63
0.28
-0.16
Niger
Diffa
Millet
13.5
13.1
12.4
0.02
-0.69
11.9
0.01
-0.77
0.39
0.16
Niger
Maradi
Millet
12.6
10.9
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Niger
Niamey
Millet
7.8
6.9
6.5
0.01
-0.62
6.4
0.01
-0.56
0.16
-0.21
Niger
Tahoua
Millet
16.0
12.7
-
-
-
13.1
0.11
-0.50
0.37
0.19
Nigeria
Kano
Maize
16.2
15.0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Nigeria
Kano
Millet
19.8
18.6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Chad
Abeche
Pearl millet
7
13.5
14.9
11.7
0.02
-0.95
11.6
0.02
-0.85
0.35
-0.21
Chad
Moundou
Pearl millet
11.1
11.8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Chad
Moussoro
Pearl millet
10.8
11.9
-
-
-
10.5
0.15
-0.49
0.73
0.07
Chad
N'Djamena
Pearl millet
12.4
14.5
14.1
0.11
-0.56
14.1
0.06
-0.66
0.37
0.19
Chad
Sarh
Pearl millet
13.7
12.2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Chad
Bol
Maize
18.6
16.2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Chad
Moussoro
Maize
14.6
12.8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Chad
N'Djamena
Maize
13.7
12.9
12.8
0.10
-0.46
12.9
0.07
-0.51
0.82
-0.05
Kenya
Eldoret
Maize
13.4
16.8
-
0.07
-
15.54
0.07
-0.45
0.89
0.03
Kenya
Mombasa
Maize
12.4
13.4
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
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