MARKETS AND DETERMINANTS OF FOOD PRICES - Food Security, Food Prices and Climate Variability - page 109

TABLE 5.4 Results of the Granger-causality test, presenting the F-test probability for the regional staple food price indices for cereals, non-cereals and all com-
modities, and for all markets, capital cities only and non-capital cities

All markets

Region Cereals Non-cereals All

Granger-caused by
FAO index

Granger-causes FAO
index

Granger-caused by
FAO index

Granger-causes FAO
index

Granger-caused by
FAO index

Granger-causes FAO
index

Prob > F Prob > F Prob > F Prob > F Prob > F Prob > F

East Africa 0.0000 0.2315 0.1512 0.0556 0.0009 0.1395

Southern Africa 0.6836 0.6400 0.0273 0.4985 0.6158 0.6147

West Africa 0.1294 0.1898 0.6521 0.4986 0.2971 0.4735

Central America 0.0115 0.4476 0.0020 0.9730 0.0008 0.5596

Central Asia 0.0005 0.3129 0.5477 0.2181 0.0010 0.1858

Capital Cities

Region Cereals Non-cereals All

Granger-caused by
FAO index

Granger-causes FAO
index

Granger-caused by
FAO index

Granger-causes FAO
index

Granger-caused by
FAO index

Granger-causes FAO
index

Prob > F Prob > F Prob > F Prob > F Prob > F Prob > F

East Africa 0.0073 0.0046 0.1698 0.2382 0.0544 0.0702

Southern Africa 0.9421 0.7931 0.1406 0.0795 0.6459 0.5378

West Africa 0.3166 0.1972 0.5557 0.5567 0.2834 0.5671

Central America 0.0059 0.4231 0.0068 0.7433 0.0033 0.5540

Central Asia 0.0007 0.7871 0.4787 0.7283 0.0024 0.5366

Source : derived from Brown et al ., 2012.