TRENDS IN NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY AND THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE - Food Security, Food Prices and Climate Variability - page 86

agricultural capacity in the top five aid recipient countries of Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania,
Zambia and Zimbabwe continue on the path that they have been on since 1961 (observed
tendencies), then there are likely to be 135 million undernourished people in the five coun-
tries by 2030. These trends will be exacerbated by reductions in yields due to declining rain-
fall, increasing the total undernourished to 210 million by 2030. However, if investment in
agriculture can increase yields by 15 percent per decade (equivalent to a 2 kg per person per
year increase in agricultural capacity), food insecurity in the five countries could be reduced
from the current level of 43 million people to ten million by 2030.
There is enormous potential for improving food security by increasing yields and thereby
incomes of millions of farmers across the developing world. Increasing the productivity of
current farms will be difficult given the many threats to yields, including degradation of soils,
reducing access to fertilizer containing phosphorus as the world's supply dwindles (Cordell et
al ., 2009), increasing climate variability and changes in seasonality. However, it will be far
easier to increase food production in regions with low productivity than to increase produc-
tion in regions that are already highly productive. Figure 4.9 shows yields by region, with
many producing far less than their climatic potential. Investment in agricultural capacity,
through introduction of high yielding seeds and increased use of fertilizer, will improve
incomes for farmers in these regions and increase the ability of the nation as a whole to meet
the needs of expanding urban populations.
The food balance modeling approach reported in this chapter excludes trade from con-
sideration. Because the topic of this topic is focused on economics and trade, this example
may not be ideal. However the model does enable the exploration of the impact of climate
variability and population growth on food availability, both of which are critical aspects of
price determination in a region. If inexpensive, locally grown food is available in abundance,
the likelihood that the poorest members of society could afford adequate food to maintain
minimum consumption is far higher than if this is not the case. Thus although the food

0 2,500 5,000

Kilometers

No data
>1,000 kg/ha
>1,500 kg/ha

>1,000 kg/ha
>1,500 kg/ha
>3,000 kg/ha

>3,500 kg/ha
>4,000 kg/ha
>4,500 kg/ha

>5,000 kg/ha
>5,500 kg/ha
>6,000 kg/ha

>6,500 kg/ha
>7,000 kg/ha
>7,500 kg/ha

FIGURE 4.9 Map of global yields in kg/hectare shown by region (source: derived from the data in
Funk and Brown, 2009).