TRENDS IN NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY AND THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE - Food Security, Food Prices and Climate Variability - page 85

Sahel Southern Africa Eastern Africa

100 100 100

Observations (FAO)
FBI-model

80 80 80

60 60 60

40 40 40

20 20 20

0 0 0

FIGURE 4.7 Comparison of Food Balance Index model output with observed quantities of the
numbers of undernourished in each region provided by the FAO from 1979 to 2003
(source: derived from Funk et al ., 2008).

agricultural capacity will affect the food security situation. This simple approach is illustrative
of the relative importance of each of these elements and how agricultural development could
affect the impact of climate variability.
Figure 4.8 shows how the food balance model can be used to project structural food security
problems into the future. The figure shows that if population increases and reductions in

250

Observed tendencies
Modeled precipitation
Precipitation and agricultural growth

200

150

100

50

0

2000 2010 2020 2030

FIGURE 4.8 Food Balance Model projections based on observed tendencies from 1961 to 2008
( Table 4.2 ) and rainfall projections in the top five food aid recipient countries of Ethi-
opia, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe (source: Funk et al ., 2008).