Conclusion - Energy Policy Analysis: A Conceptual Framework - page 231

1. Conservation and efficiency
1. Geothermal heat pump
1. Beneficial biomass
2. Hydrogen
2. Harmful biomass
3. Solar energy
4. Natural gas
5. Coal
5. Petroleum
6. Nuclear energy
To formulate new national energy policy, this is what we have to work with, and it is not a bad
crop of energy fuel technologies. The list includes only technologies that are currently in use or
on the threshold of commercial development on a large scale and amenable to rapid expansion
with or without subsidies. It includes energy fuel technologies useful in both transportation and
stationary applications, most of which have aggregate costs lower than technologies currently in
widespread use.
Unfortunately, the three energy fuels currently in widest use are the ones with the highest mix
of environmental, dollar, and national security costs: nuclear, petroleum, and coal. Use of these
energy technologies will probably continue in the short term, but should be deemphasized in
national energy policy. The five energy technologies with the lowest mix of costs are the ones we
should favor in national energy policy: conservation and efficiency improvements, geothermal
heat pumps, beneficial biomass, hydrogen, and solar energy. An easy policy choice can be made
to eliminate harmful biomass from the list on the grounds it produces exactly the same products as
beneficial biomass for higher aggregate costs, and using food crops for energy production would
be detrimental to agriculture and food supplies, as discussed in Chapter 9. Greater use of energy
fuels with the lowest mix of costs will also encourage development of technologies that minimize
demand for high-voltage electric transmission services by building energy supplies closer to their
end-use locations, which seems desirable for national security reasons.
CONSERVATION AND EFFICIENCY
Everything eventually wears out and can be replaced with something more energy-efficient. Op-
portunities for improving energy efficiency and increasing energy conservation are so numerous in
the American economy that they are actually increasing with the pace of technological innovation.
This is true for all types of appliances currently in use, as well as housing stock, factory buildings
and processes, commercial establishments, automobiles, trucks and buses, and other energy-using
devices. Corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards and greenhouse gas emission standards
have increased the energy efficiency of motor vehicles by boosting fuel economy and hold promise
for further improvements. Market adoption of advanced technologies in conventional vehicles is
expected to improve fuel economy through model year 2020 and reduce fuel costs thereafter, due
in part to greater penetration of unconventionally fueled (electric, hybrid, natural gas, hydrogen)
vehicles and in part to the addition of new technologies in conventional vehicles (USEIA 2011),
as discussed in Chapter 10. Using evolving conventional technologies, automakers could produce
a fleet of cars and light trucks that achieve over thirty-five miles per gallon by 2020. Hybrid, fuel
cell, and other advanced technologies make vehicles even more efficient (UCS 2007b).