Conclusion - Energy Policy Analysis: A Conceptual Framework - page 230

could make use of bulk electric power transmission or not, depending on the specific mode of an
energy technology used.
Fuel technologies requiring a transmission grid include nuclear, petroleum, coal, geothermal
power plants, natural gas, ocean, wind, hydroelectric, and solar energy fuel technologies, alter-
ing the ranking between them and producing an adjusted ranking from lowest aggregate costs to
highest costs as follows:
1. Conservation and efficiency
1. Geothermal heat pump
1. Beneficial biomass
2. Hydrogen
2. Harmful biomass
3. Solar energy
4. Hydroelectric energy
5. Wind
5. Ocean
6. Natural gas
6. Geothermal power plants
7. Coal
7. Petroleum
8. Nuclear energy
Realistically, four of these energy fuel technologies—ocean, geothermal power plants, hydro-
electric, and wind—are limited geographically by their nature to specific portions of the country.
Although they may make significant contributions to energy use in restricted locales, they cannot
be considered likely to make substantial new contributions to national energy consumption, even
with a high-voltage transmission grid. Ocean thermal energy conversion may someday dominate
electricity production in Hawaii, displacing some diesel and natural gas capacity, but cannot
be transmitted or produced on the U.S. mainland. Tidal energy technologies have considerable
promise for the long term, but will be limited to coastal areas and perhaps a few river locations.
Geothermal power plants are already approaching their maximum potential in California and
may make small contributions in a few other states, but are not expected to expand greatly and
are limited by dollar costs and available transmission capacity. All the large hydro sites avail-
able in the United States are currently in use, and small hydro plants are decreasing in number,
as they are decommissioned to allow free run of migratory fish species. That trend might be
reversed, but it seems unlikely, given the substantial time and effort required to secure licenses
for new hydroelectric facilities. Although wind generators are aesthetically disadvantaged, they
remain the most likely option of this bunch to increase total capacity significantly, but only as
long as government subsidies continue to attract capital, if only in areas with strong, steady
winds. Because such areas are often found in scenic and coastal areas, public opposition to new
wind generators is increasing and likely to slow the growth of this energy supply option, which
is further limited by the availability of high-voltage transmission capacity and attitudes within
the electric power industry that frown on variable-rate generating sources that sit idle much of
the time. Thus, a list of energy fuel technologies that have potential for significant increases in
capacity to supply future demand, ranked from lowest overall costs to highest costs, looks like
the following: