Hydrogen - Energy Policy Analysis: A Conceptual Framework - page 204

engine vehicles. These estimates were based on fuel cell costs of $35 to $75 per kilowatt and ap-
parently assumed mass production or a substantial technical development, or both (Ekins, Hawkins,
and Hughes 2010, 51). Honda Motor Company, which began marketing its Clarity FCX fuel cell
vehicle in the United States in 2008 for lease, but not for sale, is not saying how much it cost to
build, but others have estimated that the car, which is not mass-produced, may cost $120,000 to
$140,000 per vehicle (Ohnsman 2008). In fairness to Honda, the Clarity FCX is a prototype test
vehicle, designed to secure operating data in the hands of consumers, and should not be expected
to compete for price with other vehicles in the marketplace.
Production of hydrogen using renewable resources is significantly more expensive than using
fossil fuels. One estimate suggests that production of hydrogen using partial oxidation of oil or
coal gasification is about twice as expensive as reforming natural gas, the least expensive method;
water electrolysis is about five times as expensive; electrolysis powered by wind or photovolta-
ics is at best six times as expensive as reforming natural gas; and it is unlikely there will be any
significant production using thermochemical conversion or biochemical or photo-electrochemical
processes before 2030 (Infield 2004, 77). Absent a major technological breakthrough, the prospect
for production of hydrogen at competitive dollar cost without significant increase of greenhouse
gases seems unlikely in the interim.
National Security Costs of Utilizing Hydrogen Technologies
Hydrogen is a domestic resource. No country or group of countries is able to control supplies or
determine price for fuel or materials to construct hydrogen fuel cells. Hydrogen energy technolo-
gies produce no carbon emissions or greenhouse gases other than the small amount created during
the manufacture of equipment. Consequently, utilizing hydrogen technologies will not contribute
much to climate change or a rise in sea level. Hydrogen technologies do not produce toxic waste
that must be isolated from the human environment for millennia, or other materials useful to ter-
rorists. Consequently, the national security costs of utilizing hydrogen energy technologies are
negligible. Like solar energy, utilization of hydrogen technologies can be conceptualized as having
net national security benefits.
SUMMARY OF COSTS
The costs of utilizing hydrogen technologies are summarized in Figure 12.3 . Hydrogen use does
not pollute the air like combustion of fossil fuels such as coal or natural gas, produces negligible
greenhouse gases, and will not produce atmospheric emissions that cause acid rain. These are
substantial environmental benefits of hydrogen use that should make it attractive to a significant
part of the domestic population. The environmental costs for producing and using hydrogen tech-
nologies are incurred mostly during manufacture of equipment and facilities, and during hydrogen
production using fossil fuels, such that the environmental costs of utilizing hydrogen must be
considered “low” compared to most conventional fuel technologies in use today.
Dollar costs for use of stationary hydrogen technologies generating electricity are not competi-
tive today with conventional fuels for most applications, and must be considered “high.” Dollar
costs for use of hydrogen in fuel cell vehicles are “high” but coming down, with some light-duty
utility vehicles and buses beginning to enter the marketplace. The primary impediments to wide-
spread use of hydrogen are the high cost of fuel cells and the high cost of producing hydrogen. Fuel
cell technology is underdeveloped, compared to other conventional transportation fuels (Kawai
2004, 66), and it is reasonable to expect continued improvements in efficiencies of production