Oil and Natural Gas - Energy Policy Analysis: A Conceptual Framework - page 94

previously and stimulating expansion of strategic oil reserves in the United States (Barton et
al. 2004, 153; Davis 1993; Kalt 1981). The exact degree to which U.S. support of Israel has
been reduced or has shifted in subsequent years is undetermined, but there has certainly been
an increase in concern for the views of OAPEC countries toward U.S. foreign policy in the
Middle East.
Concern for Global Climate Change
Combustion of fossil fuels is the greatest source of carbon emissions in the United States, con-
tributing to global climate change; oil combustion contributed the largest share of all sources at
2,551 million metric tons, or 41.7 percent of total emissions of carbon dioxide in 2010. Natural
gas utilization was the third greatest source of carbon emissions in the United States, contributing
1,285 million metric tons, or 22.8 percent of the total in 2010. When combined with emissions
from coal combustion, the third-greatest source, energy-related carbon emissions from utilization
of oil, coal, and natural gas accounted for 99.9 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions in the
United States in 2010. Total U.S. carbon emissions from all sources were 5,633 million metric
tons in 2010 (USEIA 2011a, Table 11.2).
As discussed in Chapter 1, continued large-scale use of carbon fuels such as oil, natural gas,
and coal promises to directly and adversely affect many nation-states, including the Philippines,
Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, China, and Egypt (Henley 2008; O'Carroll 2008; Nicholls et al
2007, 315-356). As many as 200 million climate change refugees could be displaced by 2050 in
the South Pacific and Indian Ocean regions (MacFarquhar 2009). The impact on nearby nation-
states of an influx of so many refugees seems likely to destabilize some governments in these
regions, especially Bangladesh and perhaps Australia (Cart 2009). Actions that affect key allies
like Indonesia, Australia, or Egypt, or key rivals such as China, may reasonably be expected to
have some impact on U.S. foreign policy. Large-scale reliance on fossil fuels may threaten our
freedom of action in foreign affairs and constrain choices in use of energy technologies for do-
mestic purposes.
To the extent that other nations are concerned about or harmed by climate change and perceive
such effects to be caused in part by United States consumption of fossil fuels, our relationships
with some countries are likely to be damaged by continued utilization of large quantities of oil and
natural gas. At the current time, the national security costs of utilizing oil and natural gas resources
are considered by the general public and many government decision makers to be low, but they may
be expected to increase in the future, as different countries are affected and make their concerns
known to the United States through diplomatic channels or in the international arena.
Infrastructure Centralization and Vulnerability to Terrorism
The oil and gas industry infrastructure in the United States is highly centralized in very large
facilities in only a few states. Three-fourths of domestic oil production occurs in only four states:
Texas, Louisiana, Alaska, and California; over half the refinery capacity is concentrated in three
states: Texas, Louisiana, and California (Lovins and Lovins 1982, 109). “A handful of people
could shut off three-fourths of the oil and gas supply to the eastern United States in one evening
without even leaving Louisiana” (Lovins et al. 2002, 47). Terrorist attacks against such facilities
have actually occurred, both in the United States and other countries, causing many millions of
dollars in damage, and recent structural changes in the industry have tended to accentuate the
vulnerabilities of centralization (Lovins and Lovins 1982, 111).